FOXBORO -- The word "predictability" is a dirty one in the NFL. It's the last thing you want to be. When you are, you do your best to rid yourself of it, lest you give your opponents an advantage before the ball is even snapped. When you aren't, you're golden.
What makes the Steelers offense a fascinating study is that they've been among the most predictable offenses in football, and it hasn't mattered.
Consider what they did in 2018. Ben Roethlisberger led the league in passing yards (5,129) despite everyone knowing he was going to throw on them like crazy. No one threw more (689 attempts) than the Steelers, and on a percentage basis of their overall plays they were the second-most likely team to throw (67 percent pass) in football.
But it's not just that the Steelers liked to chuck it. They were OK with telling defenses when they'd throw it last season.
According to Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analytics, the Steelers played out of the shotgun on a whopping 79 percent of snaps last year (league average was 63 percent), and they passed 80 percent of the time out of the gun. When they were (somewhat rarely) under center, the Steelers ran it 73 percent of the time.
Even in a true world-is-your-oyster play-calling scenario like second-and-short, the Steelers were pass-heavy. Per Sharp, they threw in those situations 69 percent of the time, which was more than any other team and almost double the league average (35 percent).
So what about this season?
New England Patriots
In 2019, the Steelers will obviously bring back the same quarterback in Roethlisberger. Mike Tomlin is still the head coach. Randy Fichtner is still the offensive coordinator. Last season was his first season in that role, but even he's been around the Steelers for what in the NFL would be considered an eternity. This will be his 13th season on the offensive staff.
But there is one obvious difference between this year's Steelers team as they get ready for Week 1 in Foxboro: All-Pro talent and next-level annoyance Antonio Brown is gone.
Even though the Steelers have telegraphed their offensive intentions in the past, there is a level of uncertainty facing the Patriots this week. Maybe the Steelers will change things up. Maybe they'll do what other Patriots opponents have done in the past, knowing Bill Belichick and his staff analyze opponent tendencies with a fine-tooth comb, and change their habits accordingly.
Still, the Patriots will have to be ready for throws. And lots of 'em.
The best indication of what the Steelers might do at Gillette Stadium is probably what they did in Week 17 last season -- their only game without Brown. They threw 43 times on 68 snaps that day, with 10 targets going to JuJu Smith-Schuster.
With Brown out, Smith-Schuster -- who played primarily on the outside in Week 17 last season -- will serve as the team's No. 1 target. Donte Moncrief, James Washington and Ryan Switzer will fill in alongside at wideout.
"The offense was the same [in Week 17]," Harmon said. "They went five-wide, they went 00-personnel (zero backs, zero tight ends, five receivers), 01, 02-personnel. They ran their offense. When you have a quarterback like Ben Roethlisberger and you just put good receivers around him, he's going to make it work."
The Patriots would acknowledge that the Steelers running game commands respect as well. James Conners has proven he can fill Le'Veon Bell's shoes when it comes to between-the-tackles work, and the Patriots saw first hand just how effective Pittsburgh's ground game can be when Jaylen Samuels scampered for 142 yards against them in Week 15 last year.
But even when they ran it well, the Steelers remained a fairly predictable offense last season. One of the most basic deception plays in football happens to be one the Steelers largely eschew; they used play-action less frequently than any other team in football in 2018, according to Sharp.
"I wouldn't say it makes it easier," Harmon said. "They've got a great quarterback, great receivers. Ben had more passing yards last year than any quarterback. Whether it's play-action or just drop-back pass, he makes it work. He gets the ball, he throws the ball, he throws it well."
Even though it's Week 1, even though Pittsburgh is without Brown, the Patriots defense can expect the Steelers to do what they do. That means Roethlisberger scanning the field out of the shotgun, reaching back, and letting it rip.
Again and again.
"As a secondary, these are games that you're excited for," Harmon said. "You have opportunities to not only play great coverage but get your hands on the ball. We're excited for the challenge."
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