It would be easier to catch a fly betwixt a pair of chopsticks à la Mr. Miyagi than it would be to pin down exactly how the NFL -- commissioner Roger Goodell and vice president of football operations Troy Vincent, in particular -- will punish Tom Brady and the Patriots after digesting the findings of the Wells Report.
The league can be unpredictable in its doling out of discipline, but it is unlike a court of law in that the bar is set relatively low in order to find definitively that someone has broken the rules. While Brady may be able to legally refute parts of the report that are cited as evidence against him, the NFL is not bound by the restrictions of proving guilt "beyond a reasonable doubt."
Instead, as it was made clear in the 243-page writeup, "more probable than not" sufficed as the league's standard for finding wrongdoing. It was "more probable than not that Tom Brady (the quarterback for the Patriots) was at least generally aware" that Patriots employees were preparing balls illegally, the report states.
According to the first of many footnotes in the report, "Under the Policy, the 'standard of proof required to find that a violation of the competitive rules has occurred' is a 'Preponderance of the Evidence,' meaning that 'as a whole, the fact sought to be proved is more probable than not.' "
What does this all mean? The NFL has the grounds to punish Brady, and perhaps the team, if that's deemed the appropriate course of action. The question is, how severe will the punishment be, and what will it entail?
Some are under the impression that Brady, coach Bill Belichick (who was exonerated in the report) and the team should be burned at the stake, so to speak. It appears as though, however, season-long suspensions are highly unlikely to be handed down.
Most believe that a more mild punishment could be coming. Here are some of the options.
New England Patriots
BY THE BOOK
A violation of the league's rules on air pressure in footballs carries a punishment described in the Wells Report as follows:
"Once the balls have left the locker room, no one, including players, equipment managers and coaches are allowed to alter the footballs in any way. If any individual alters the footballs, or if a non-approved ball is used in the game, the person responsible and, if appropriate, the head coach or other club personnel will be subject to discipline, including but not limited to, a fine of $25,000."
Brady, Patriots equipment assistant John Jastremski and locker room attendant Jim McNally could all be hit with fines, and the league has the authorization to suspended Brady. Given the conclusions reached in the report, and his profile as one of the faces of the Patriots and of the league, it would come as no surprise if Brady felt the brunt of the punishment in this situation even though he is not accused of taking a needle to game-used footballs and actually breaking the rule himself.
A fine or any other punishment for the team would seem less likely in that the report went out of its way to explain that the Patriots coaching staff and ownership had no knowledge of any wrongdoing on the part of Brady, Jastremski or McNally.
BROWNS, FALCONS MODEL
Earlier this offseason, both Cleveland and Atlanta were punished for breaking rules that would fall under the category of trying to gain an unfair competitive advantage.
The Browns were fined for illegal text messaging on game days, while the Falcons were fined and had to forfeit a 2016 fifth-round draft pick for pumping in crowd noise to their stadium for home games.
It's been theorized that because those two teams eventually came clean to some extent, the league may have been more inclined to give them some leniency. All involved for the Patriots, on the other hand, have long denied doing anything untoward to their game footballs.
SAYING THERE'S A CHANCE?
The Wells investigation, and its results, have already done potentially irreparable harm to the reputations of all three Patriots employees involved -- most notably that of Brady, who had previously procured a near spotless image during his 15 years in the NFL.
Though perhaps the most unlikely scenario, the league could find that the Wells report did not provide sufficient evidence to warrant a serious punishment for Brady or anyone else, opting not to fine or suspend anyone.
Though implausible, Goodell made a statement on Wedensday that did not guarantee there would be any punishment handed down.
If he is given a suspension, Brady would have a right to appeal.
Until then, everyone waits. The Patriots, Vegas, everyone.