Curran's Patriots-Broncos Preview: Does Denver have a shot?

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Can the Patriots take care of business against the undermanned Broncos after a trying two weeks dealing with COVID-19? Our Tom E. Curran has your comprehensive game preview.

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1/11

Long-awaited, much-debated, the Patriots and Broncos are set to go with the virus abated. I guess. Who knows?

There’s been a whack-a-mole, all-over-the-roster nature to the Patriots who’ve tested positive – a quarterback, a cornerback, a center, two defensive linemen – which makes it hard for anyone on the outside to say, “Oh, that makes sense. They spend time together.”

Since figuring it out is a lost cause and wasted energy, let’s instead go to the football. As impressive as the Patriots have been in their four games, they still aren’t a team talented enough to look down its nose at any opponent, and that includes the 1-3 Broncos. 

2/11

One thing Denver’s pretty good at is dealing with the run. While they've given up 4.2 yards per carry, they’ve dealt with three of the league’s better running teams – Tennessee, Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay – and are still 13th overall in yards allowed and 11th in YPC. On first down, they are especially good, allowing just 2.14 YPC.

With Cam Newton at the controls, the Patriots have obviously embraced their inner smashmouth and it’s been impressive to watch. But they’re going against a Denver group that – even though it’s been pockmarked by injuries to players like Jurrell Casey and Von Miller – has still performed well. Bradley Chubb is their best front-seven player and will demand extra attention.

The Patriots are dinged on the offensive line with Isaiah Wynn dealing with a calf injury David Andrews on injured reserve with his hand issue and Shaq Mason and James Ferentz – who stepped in at center for Andrews – now on the COVID list. There will be shuffling from this but the Patriots have dealt with that pretty much all season.

If you’re Denver, you try and get the ball in the air. The Patriots have shown no imminent threat at tight end and Julian Edelman is quite obviously dinged up with a knee injury.

This would be a good week for the long overdue N’Keal Harry breakout game in which he takes over a bit. He’s had more than 40 yards receiving once in his 12 games as a pro, including playoffs. By contrast, Damiere Byrd’s done that seven times since the start of 2019.

But the Patriots are a running team. In three of their four games they’ve gone for 217, 250 and 185. Can Denver bow up and get them out of their comfort zone?
 
EDGE: Patriots

3/11

When last we saw the Patriots, they were confounding the best quarterback and most explosive offense in the league on a Monday night in Kansas City. The Denver Broncos have neither the best quarterback in the league nor its most explosive offense. So, layup, right?

Are you new here? Of course you’re not. There is way less week-to-week cohesion between performances than people suppose and what the Patriots did schematically to confound Patrick Mahomes is irrelevant now.

Drew Lock, despite the “Who’s he?” dismissiveness he often gets, has done enough to warrant that attention be paid. He’s not an aggressive thrower (6.5 YPA in his seven games) but he’s taken care of the ball (three picks in seven games). His best weapon this season has been second-year tight end Noah Fant (19 catches, 219 yards, 2 TDs), who is out with an ankle injury. 

Big Tim Patrick (6-foot-4, 212 pounds) is the Broncos second-leading receiver with 16 catches, followed by rookie Jerry Jeudy (15 catches, 15.6 YPC). It’s not the Chiefs' array of weapons but it’s a good group.

The Broncos running game is a little bit of an unknown coming into this one. The speedy and elusive Phillip Lindsay will be ready to go with Melvin Gordon out due to illness but he’s only carried seven times this season.

The Patriots have not been a lockdown team against the run by any stretch so if Denver can be productive on first down and not get into a situation where they are in obvious passing situations, they should be able to keep contact. 
 
EDGE: Patriots

4/11

Brandon McManus is the Broncos' kicker. Someone tweeted recently during a Broncos game that they’d never seen McManus miss a kick. Me neither. But he did miss one this season. He’s 3 for 4 outside 50 yards.

Punter Sam Martin has a 38.3 net and teams are averaging 8.4 yards per return against them. Damiere Byrd, Gunner Olszewski and J.J. Taylor have been the returners. None have been electric.

Jake Bailey is a weapon as the Patriots punter. Nick Folk is fine. 
 
EDGE: Broncos

5/11

How drastically – if at all – the Patriots and Broncos are impacted by a chaotic two weeks. The Patriots were barely able to practice and had no idea if they’d be missing their starting quarterback and best defender until the middle of this week.

The Broncos, who were practically left on the runway last week, were agitated about that and this week had more uncertainty sent their way. No team does tunnel vision like the Patriots. It will hardly be a surprise if they play well but it will be understandable if they don’t. 

6/11

Cam Newton

This one’s easy. When the Patriots play well offensively, it’s because Newton either ran or passed them into success. In the one game Newton wasn’t exceptional – against the Raiders – the Patriots got a huge game on the ground from Damien Harris and Rex Burkhead. And that too is traceable to the threat of Newton.  

7/11

Bradley Chubb

The fifth overall pick in 2019 was sidelined by an ACL after four games last year but he’s apparently back to full speed after a 2.5-sack game against the Jets.

Leading up to the draft, Bill Belichick intently watched Chubb’s workout knowing the Patriots had no shot at drafting him. Future intel gathering? Probably. 

8/11

Denver Broncos

OUT: TE Noah Fant (ankle), RB Melvin Gordon (illness), OLB Jeremiah Attaochu (quad), WR K.J Hamler (hamstring).

QUESTIONABLE: QB Drew Lock.

New England Patriots

OUT: OL Shaq Mason (COVID-19/reserve), C James Ferentz ((COVID-19/reserve), DE Derek Rivers (COVID-19/reserve).

QUESTIONABLE: DT Adam Butler (shoulder), WR Julian Edelman (knee), T Isaiah Wynn (calf).

9/11

“I can’t compare my situation to anybody else. Just like DK (Metcalf) can’t compare his situation to AJ (Brown) and AJ can’t really compare his situation to DK. We’re all in different positions so … when I sit there, I’m extremely happy for those guys.

"I was training with them pre-draft so I know how much work they put in and I have a lot of respect for the way they grind. I’ve never been the type to just sit there and say, ‘Why hasn’t that happened for me?’ I know I’m in a different situation and I’m just going to just, every day, go out there and work on ways to improve and stay patient and trust God’s timing … that’s my philosophy.”

– N’Keal Harry, Patriots wide receiver, on whether he compares himself to fellow 2019 rookie wideouts.

10/11

“Their offensive line has done a really good job of run blocking. They’re physical, they execute their combination blocks very well and they’re kind of an old school team at times when they get into regular personnel with a full back and a running back and they pound it straight ahead. They’re very good at it.

" ... Then you add into the dimension of when they go into the shotgun, and the quarterback generated runs that Cam Newton can run adds another level to it. They’ve been running the ball very well and I don’t think it’s an accident.”

– Vic Fangio, Broncos coach, on the Patriots rushing attack.

11/11

Patriots 31, Broncos 24

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