Silver lining in Patriots' playoff exit? Draft history shows encouraging trend

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Hear us out: What if Tom Brady actually did the Patriots a solid by throwing a pick-six on his final play with New England?

OK, the Patriots obviously didn't want to lose to the Tennessee Titans in January's AFC Wild Card Round.

But as head coach Bill Belichick himself has noted, New England's earliest playoff exit since 2010 gave the club a few extra weeks to prepare for the offseason and 2020 NFL Draft.

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And it turns out Belichick makes good use of extra time.

Expert numbers-cruncher Boston Sports Info (@BostonSportsInf) sifted through the Patriots' entire draft history under Belichick (2000 to present) and ranked their top 15 picks using Pro Football Reference's "Weighted Career Annual Value" metric, which accounts for a player's entire career (i.e. not just in New England).

"Sports Inf" then examined which of those players New England drafted in years after it didn't win a playoff game the previous season, which happened five times in the Belichick era (2000, 2002, 2008, 2009 and 2010) prior to 2019.

The result? The Patriots made nine of their best 15 picks in the drafts following one of those five seasons -- so, the 2001, 2003, 2009, 2010 and 2011 NFL Drafts.

Check out the full top 15 list below; the players shaded in light blue were taken in years after the Patriots either missed the playoffs or lost their first playoff game.

We should note an obvious benefit here: The worse your team was the previous year, the higher your draft pick. That benefit allowed the Patriots to nab stud defensive lineman Richard Seymour at No. 6 in the 2001 draft and select solid left tackle Nate Solder at No. 17 in 2011.

But you'll notice they drafted the rest of that group of nine at the end of the first round or in later rounds.

New England found the best tight end in NFL history (Rob Gronkowski) and a future Patriots Hall of Famer (Matt Light) in the second round, a Pro Bowl cornerback (Asante Samuel) in the fourth round, an eight-year starting center (Dan Koppen) in the fifth round and a Super Bowl MVP wide receiver (Julian Edelman) in the seventh round.

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And we didn't even mention offensive tackle Sebastian Vollmer or safety Devin McCourty, the latter of which is the Patriots' defensive leader entering 2020.

The Patriots also had their misses during those drafts (remember Ras-I Dowling?), but give Belichick extra time to prepare, and chances are he'll find at least one future star at the draft.

So, keep a close eye on who New England selects in the 2020 NFL Draft this month -- and if the new crop can keep this trend going.

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