Curran's Patriots-Texans Preview: Will the Pats get back to .500?

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The Patriots have a chance to get back to the .500 mark if they can extend their winning streak to three with a win over the 2-7 Texans. Tom E. Curran breaks down the Week 11 matchup in Houston.

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So far this season, the Texans are 2-7. The only team they’ve beaten – twice – is the Jacksonville Jaguars. Obviously, they aren’t good. But one less discussed aspect to their record? They’ve played a daunting schedule. Take out those two wins over the 1-8 Jags and the other seven opponents are a combined 46-17. They are all but mathematically eliminated from playoff contention and are a team in flux/turmoil.

How much fight do they still have? Probably not as much as the Patriots, who don’t have much wiggle room themselves. At 4-5, they are in third in the AFC East by two games trailing the 6-3 Dolphins and 7-3 Bills. As for the Wild Card, six teams are at 6-3, so they’re two games out there as well.

Last week’s prime-time win over the Ravens put wind back in their playoff sails a little bit. But they can’t stub their toe in Houston. Fortunately, they are facing a team that has a deadly combo of sins – the Texans can’t run the ball and they can’t stop the run.
 

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2/12

In six of their nine games, the Texans have allowed more than 160 rushing yards. Three times they’ve allowed more than 200 -- including 231 last week to the Browns. They are dead-last in run defense.

It just so happens that running the football is the Patriots' bread, butter, soup, salad, main course and dessert (third in rushing with 161.3 per game). Early in the year, the Patriots ground attack revolved around Cam Newton. But now, with the offensive line nicely jelled, fullback Jakob Johnson clearing humans and Damien Harris running like he’s late for his wedding, there’s a lot less RPO deception and more straight-ahead road-grading.

The Texans also stink at coming up with turnovers (32nd in defensive interception rate, just two picks all year) and are 26th and 27th in YPA through the air and stopping opponents on third down.
 

EDGE: Patriots
 

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3/12

Even with one of the league’s best young quarterbacks in Deshaun Watson, the Texans don’t move the ball much. They are 31st in rushing yards per game (87.9) and 28th in third-down conversions.

And – while Watson puts up good numbers – the trickle-down effect from being one-dimensional is seen in another stat. Sacks. He’s going down a lot, with close to nine percent of his drop-backs ending with a sack (25th in the league). Even though he’s taken those 26 sacks, Watson more than makes up for the yards lost as a runner and a thrower. He’s completing 68 percent of his passes for more than 2,500 yards with 18 touchdowns and five picks.

His leading targets are all wideouts – Brandin Cooks (43-549), Will Fuller (41-628) and Randall Cobb (36-434) meaning he’s not checking down and nibbling his way down the field. The Patriots had a great game-plan for Lamar Jackson last week, but weather conditions and his limitations as a thrower helped that work. Watson has more guys to throw to.

The Patriots can’t backslide and have a secondary/pass rush performance like they did against the Jets two weeks ago. The return of Stephon Gilmore would be a help. The Patriots are 31st in the NFL in passing yards allowed per play (8.23) which means they give up chunks. The Texans take big bites.
 

EDGE: Patriots
 

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4/12

Ka’imi Fairbairn is the Texans kicker and he’s a competent one, going 14 for 17 this season, 5 for 8 beyond 40 yards. Punter Bryan Anger is garden variety – 48.3 gross, 42.8 net. The Texans' main returner, DeAndre Carter, was waived this week, so you could see Randall Cobb catching punts.

Meanwhile, check this number: the Patriots have returned just five punts in nine games and allowed just four punt returns. That play – when the Patriots are playing – is just a kick-and-catch. I will say this once … to all you people who wanted to give up on Nick Folk? I told you he was the least of their problems.
 

EDGE: Patriots
 

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5/12

QUESTIONABLE: LB Ja'Whaun Bentley (groin), DL Adam Butler (shoulder), K Nick Folk (back), CB Stephon Gilmore (knee), DL Lawrence Guy (shoulder, elbow and knee), LB Terez Hall (shoulder), RB Damien Harris (ankle, chest), WR N'Keal Harry (shoulder), TE Ryan Izzo (hamstring, hand), G Shaq Mason (calf), DE John Simon (elbow), WR Matthew Slater (knee), G Joe Thuney (ankle), DE Deatrich Wise (knee, hand), T Isaiah Wynn (ankle).

 

6/12

OUT: S Michael Thomas (shoulder)

QUESTIONABLE: P Bryan Anger (right quad), FB Cullen Gillaspia (back), G Senio Kelemete (concussion), OLB Jacob Martin (not injury related), DE Charles Omenihu (hamstring), WR Kenny Stills (back), T Laremy Tunsil (illness).

 

7/12

No blowing chunks. As described above, the Texans derive most of their offensive production from their wideouts. Against the Jets, the Patriots allowed four plays of 20 or more yards including a 50-yard touchdown pass from Joe Flacco to Breshad Perriman.

Watson can push it downfield and he has the outside receivers to run under them. The Patriots – who’ve been a little more blitz-reliant this year – have to hold up on the back end if that’s what they choose to do against Watson.

 

8/12

Damien Harris

The Patriots running back is on a serious roll having run for more than 100 yards in three of his six games and only being under 5 YPC for a game once. He’s averaging 5.5 YPC after his 22-lug, 121-yard showing against the Ravens.

 

9/12

Randall Cobb

The ancient slot is actually still a nuisance. He’s got 36 catches for 434 yards this year and is the most reliable target for Watson in terms of catch-percentage among the wideouts. He had 8 for 95 against the Packers three weeks ago and has pulled in 23 of the last 28 balls he’s been thrown.

 

10/12

“We got a streak of easily the top five most dangerous quarterbacks when you talk about dual-threat, Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, then Kyler Murray we'll see next week. … We're seeing guys that are very dangerous throwing the football, but you know as dangerous when they tuck it and go. I think the thing that sticks out with Deshaun Watson is how many times he -- either in the pocket or running -- gets hit and you can tell how strong he is. …He has really good strength, lower body and upper body strength. You don't always see guys have that when they can move as well as he does.”

– Devin McCourty on Deshaun Watson

 

11/12

“I stress that this situation, this feeling, where we are, can never, ever be acceptable in any fashion. I personally don’t think you should ever show up to work happy and excited and joyous when you’re 2-7. I don’t think this should be acceptable for players, for coaches, for fans, for anybody, front office. The message that I stress is find a way to put more work in. The only way to get better at football is to practice football.”

– J.J. Watt, Texans defensive lineman

 

12/12

Patriots 31, Texans 24

 

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