Tomase: Breaking down Red Sox payroll entering 2021 season

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Will the Red Sox have money to spend in free agency this offseason, or will it be another lean winter? John Tomase breaks down the roster — and payroll — by position as the Sox look to rebuild.

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The Red Sox ended the season with 47 players either on the 40-man roster or 60-day injured list, and more than a third of them — 18 — could be cut tomorrow without costing the team an ounce of production on the field.

From Yoan Aybar to Dylan Covey to Zack Godley, Kyle Hart, Jeffrey Springs, Jose Peraza, and unfortunately, Dustin Pedroia, the Red Sox could clear away more than a quarter of their 40-man to make room for whatever chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom envisions coming next.

While the Red Sox will have to make room for a handful of prospects or risk losing them in the Rule 5 draft, they should still have a flexible roster this winter. These are rough estimates, but as things stand now, they've committed $185 million to next year's team against a $210 million luxury tax threshold, leaving them $25 million to spend on needs ranging from center field to pitching, pitching, and more pitching.

Here's how the roster breaks down, with a tip of the cap to the Globe's Alex Speier on the arbitration projections and miscellaneous costs.

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Christian Vazquez, Kevin Plawecki

 

Vazquez will count $4.5 million towards the luxury tax as he completes a bargain-basement three-year, $13.55 million extension that includes a $7 million team option for 2022. While that contract and the need to upgrade the roster make him a trade candidate this winter, he's just as likely to stay and continue providing solid value.

Plawecki, meanwhile, showed more than expected offensively and should open camp as the backup on a projected arbitration salary of about $2 million.

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1B Bobby Dalbec, 2B Christian Arroyo, SS Xander Bogaerts, 3B Rafael Devers, IF/OF Yairo Muñoz, 1B/2B Michael Chavis, IF Jonathan Arauz

 

A lot could change here. For one, the Red Sox could decide that while they liked what they saw out of Dalbec and Arroyo in limited action, they could stand to upgrade at first and second base, respectively. There's also no guarantee Chavis returns after hitting .212 during a disappointing 2020.

The standouts — and the bulk of the financial commitments among a sea of minimum-salaried youngsters — are Bogaerts ($20 million) and Devers (estimated $5 million). They will once again be expected to anchor the left side of the infield while anchoring the lineup. Bogaerts just turned 28 and is smack in the middle of his prime, while the 23-year-old Devers finished strong after his second straight miserable start.

Neither of them are going anywhere, especially now that Bogaerts' no-trade protections have kicked in. The rest of this group feels pretty interchangeable, the good news being there's no shortage of low-cost infield options (Arauz, Muñoz, Arroyo) to allow for spending elsewhere.

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RF Alex Verdugo, LF Andrew Benintendi

 

One of the primary tasks this winter will be replacing Jackie Bradley Jr. in center. While it's possible the Gold Glover returns, it seems more likely that the Red Sox will seek a replacement who can keep the job warm until prospect Jarren Duran is ready.

That leaves only Verdugo and Benintendi on the active roster. The former looks like a building block after an outstanding Red Sox debut, while the latter was a disaster before shutting down his season after only 39 at-bats.

The best center fielder on the market is Houston's George Springer, but he's probably too rich for Boston's blood, thanks in part to the draft-pick compensation that will be required to sign him. Bradley and former Pirates All-Star Starling Marte are next on the list, with old friend Kevin Pillar highlighting the third tier.

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J.D. Martinez

 

It seems safe to assume that Martinez will return in 2021. He admitted as much late in the season, acknowledging that opting out in the current economic environment will be a tough sell. It doesn't help that he did himself no favors by batting just .213 in what could've been a walk year.

While there remains an outside possibility that a National League team will step to the plate for Martinez in free agency, let's take him at his word that he's staying put.

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RHP Nathan Eovaldi, LHP Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP Martin Perez, RHP Nick Pivetta, RHP Tanner Houck

 

A rotation that only recently featured baseball's highest-paid pitcher in left-hander David Price now looks like something out of a small market. Beyond Eovaldi ($17 million) and Rodriguez ($8.5 million arbitration estimate), the Red Sox hope to get by with intriguing youngsters (Pivetta, Houck) and a veteran fifth-starter type (Perez). Adding depth will be a primary motivator this offseason, and an upgrade on at least one of those five spots wouldn't hurt, either.

Prospects Bryan Mata and Jay Groome need more seasoning, but could be solutions down the road, with the former closer to the big leagues.

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RHP Matt Barnes, RHP Ryan Brasier, LHP Darwinzon Hernandez, LHP Josh Taylor, RHP Phillips Valdez, RHP Colten Brewer, RHP Austin Brice, RHP Ryan Weber

 

There weren't a lot in the way of revelations out of the bullpen, with the exception of the crafty Valdez, as well as Brasier, who dialed back the clock to 2018 by throwing 95 again. Barnes would like the opportunity to close in 2021, and the veteran may very well get it.

There are upgrade opportunities throughout this group and any of the above could be moved this winter. The two most intriguing arms remain Hernandez and Taylor, a pair of hard-throwing left-handers who battled COVID and threw only 15.2 innings between them.

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LHP David Price, LHP Chris Sale, 2B Dustin Pedroia

 

Every team features its share of dead money, but the Red Sox feel that loss acutely. They still owe Price $16 million in each of the next two seasons, they're on the hook for the final $12 million owed Pedroia ($13.3 million for luxury tax purposes), and Sale will count for $25.6 million as he recovers from Tommy John surgery, whether he throws a pitch or not.

That's about a quarter of the current payroll tied up in two players who definitely won't contribute, and one who might need a year before returning to Cy Young form.

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