By Bill Chuck
Special to CSNNE.com
We now have the stats that will tell us how well a batter does for example in the seventh inning or later with the batting team tied, ahead by one, or the tying run at least on deck. We can see how well they do when their team is within one, two, three or four runs, ahead in the game or behind in the game.
But the stat that I like to track to determine a clutch hitter is runners in scoring position (RISP) and runners in scoring position with 2 outs (RISP w2 outs). I like this stat in particular because a critical hit can be needed at any point in the game and can set the tone as early as the 1st inning.
The other thing I like about RISP is that it can be used to measure the effectiveness of both batters and pitchers.
Lets look at batters first and use an exemplar first: Ted Williams. The Splendid Splinter was a lifetime .344 hitter and hit .332 with runners in scoring position and .297 RISP w2 outs. His replacement in left field, Carl Yastrzemski was a lifetime .285 hitter and hit even better with runners in scoring position, .289, but .256 RISP w2 outs. His replacement, Jim Rice was a .298 career hitter and a .308 hitter with runners in scoring position, .289, and .270 RISP w2 outs. The current occupant, Carl Crawford, is struggling in every situation hitting .127 overall and is 1-for-14 (.071) in RISP settings and 0-for-5 in those setting with two outs. This is from a guy who has .308 lifetime RISP average and .296 RISP w2outs average.
David Ortiz, of walkoff homer fame (he has 10), is a guy we think of a clutch hitter. Throughout his career he has a .296 RISP average (just .133 this month) and with two outs its .286 (.200 in 2011). J.D. Drew, on the other hand, is not the batter the Nation wants in the clutch and their instinct is right. In his career hes a .277 RISP hitter (just .244 with the Sox, .154 this season). With two outs, hes hit .245 overall, but only .218 with the Sox and 0-4 this season.
There are two Sox hitters that I want to see up with runners in scoring position:
Boston Red Sox
Kevin Youkilis is a .330 RISP hitter (2-for-14 this season only should give you reason for hope) and .304 RISP w2 outs.
One of the things I love from a stats viewpoint is the consistency of Adrian Gonzalez. A-Gon is a .284 lifetime hitter, a .312 RISP hitter (.308 this season) and a .275 RISP w2 outs hitter (.429 this season).
RISP numbers for pitchers is a telling stat because you need to look at how they respond to those situations, but you must also take into account that they created the problem as well. In addition, the stress of pitching with runners on base is greater than with the sacks empty, plus it is more difficult for a pitcher to generate speed on his fastball from the stretch position.
Here is a look at the Sox starting fives career numbers:
PitcherRISP PA
RISP RABA
RISP w2out PA
RISP w2 out RABA
Josh Beckett
1533
495.247
724
211.247
Clay Buchholz
393
119.233
172
37.174
John Lackey
1818
602.263
847
255.252
Jon Lester
793
235.234
348
91.200
Daisuke Matsuzaka
689
198.221
301
62.180
Here you can compare the Sox starting fives career numbers with Boston:
Pitcher
First year wSox
RISP PA
RISP RABA
RISP w2 outs
RISP w2outs RABA
Beckett2006933313.244353107.245Buchholz
2007
393
119.233
172
37.174
Lackey
2010
291
98.272
134
42.277
Lester
2006
793
235.234
348
91.200
Matsuzaka
2007
689
198.221
301
62.180
Here is a look at the Sox starting fives numbers this season:
PitcherRISP PA
RISP RABA
RISP w2out PA
RISP w2 out RABA
Josh Beckett
19
4.188
8
1.143
Clay Buchholz
13
7.250
6
2.167
John Lackey
19
13.500
14
10.545
Jon Lester
19
7.158
10
4.100
Daisuke Matsuzaka
10
5.144
3
0.000
PA = Plate Appearances
RA = Runs Allowed
BA = Batting Average
There is no doubt that Jon Lester is the horse of this staff and while Becketts numbers have been good, Lesters are very good.
Spend some time looking at the numbers and you can see how much more practice Dice-K has with runners in scoring position and, while it may be hard to believe, his overall numbers could be much worse if he wasnt so effective with runners in scoring position. On the other hand, when John Lackey allows runners in scoring position, it is trouble for him and the Sox.
Buchholz numbers are somewhat misleading in that he has appeared in far fewer games than his compatriots, but his effectiveness is nevertheless considerable.
RISP is a number we will track throughout the season and how effective the Sox are in this category will go a long way in determining how well the Sox do this season.
From the Bill Chuck Red Sox Files: The Sox last season after 14 games were 5-9. I dont need to remind you, on this day more than ever, that the season is marathon, not a dash . . . Jacoby Ellsbury already has three homers which ties him for his best month ever. He had three in April, 2008, three in June, 2009, and three in Sept., 2007 . . . The Sox have stolen six bases, only Baltimore with four and Minnesota with five have fewer in the AL. The Rays' Sam Fuld (Durham NH) has seven.