Nation STATion: Bard has lost his way

538083.jpg

Nation STATion: Bard has lost his way

By Bill Chuck
Special to CSNNE.com

Okay, I will admit that I wanted to write with joy about Jacoby and Dustin this morning, but Daniel Bard has become the latest Red Sox elephant in the room that is impossible to ignore. For those of you who read Nation STATion regularly, you know that from the start of the season I have felt that the Sox starters were this teams weakest link. I have not wavered in that. I see this team in the postseason, but their chances for success are reliant upon a combination of the Sox bats and the bullpen compensating for the starters.

Having said all that, having Daniel Bard in a slump is serious business. There is still a fortnight to get him back into sync, but the growing sense of urgency has to be felt, not just among the faithful of the Nation, but in the clubhouse as well.

From May 27 to July 31, Daniel Bard was damn near perfect. In 25 appearances, covering 26.2 innings, he held the opposition to a .125 batting average. He faced 96 batters, walking six and striking out 25. His fastball averaged 97.6 mph.

He struggled in his first two appearances in August, pitching one and a third innings allowing four runs on four hits, walking one, striking out one. His fastball averaged 98.2 mph.

The rest of August, Bard was back, baby! From August 7 to August 31, Bard appeared in eight games, threw 9.2 innings allowing just two hits. Batters hit just .065 against him as he struck out 13 and while walking just one. His fastball averaged 97.6 mph.

But for the second month in a row, turning the page on the calendar seems to have freaked Bard out. September has been a mess. He has been scored upon in four of his five appearances. He is 0-3 and has a 17.36 ERA in 4.2 innings. He has allowed 10 runs, nine earned and batters have hit him at a .316 pace. His fastball has averaged 96.2 mph.

I have included these fastballs numbers to show you that he hasnt lost a significant amount of speed; he has simply lost his way. As Bard said yesterday, Im struggling with timing with my delivery, Bard said. I can feel it on every pitch. Feels a little different. Ive been through it before. I think the effects of it are just magnified by how big these games are. Sometimes you go out there and your mechanics are a little off and they swing at a couple of pitches and youre able to get through it. Unfortunately they really havent been swinging and missing.

Of the 92 pitches he has thrown this month, batters have swung at 38 and missed on only eight. Theyve only swung and missed on three of the 64 fastballs hes thrown this month. Part of the reason, is that most of his pitches arent really even close to the strike zone. This month hes thrown 39 pitches in the strike zone and 53 out of the strike zone. And when I say hes not been close, I mean that only four of his pitches have been on the black (the edge of home plate), and on only one pitch has Bard hit the corner.

This current slump is much worse than any other that Bard has ever experienced as a major leaguer. Hes been the key 8th inning guy for the Sox, and the prototypical 8th inning reliever for all of baseball, over the past two seasons.

Lets compare 2010 and 2011, month by month, and you can see he is in uncharted territory:

410 three walks and 18 strikeouts in 14.2 innings, ERA: 3.07, WHIP: 0.750
411 three walks and 12 strikeouts in 12.1 innings, ERA: 3.65, WHIP: 1.135

510 six walks and 11 strikeouts in 11.1 innings, ERA: 0.79, WHIP: 1.147
511 four walks and 13 strikeouts in 13.1 innings, ERA: 3.38, WHIP: 0.825

610 three walks and 13 strikeouts in 13.2 innings, ERA: 1.98, WHIP: 0.732
611 three walks and 12 strikeouts in 13.0 innings, ERA: 0.00, WHIP: 0.538

710 four walks and nine strikeouts in 9.1 innings, ERA: 0.96, WHIP: 0.857
711 three walks and 12 strikeouts in 13.0 innings, ERA: 0.00, WHIP: 0.811

810 six walks and 11 strikeouts in 12.1 innings, ERA: 1.46, WHIP: 1.054
811 two walks and 14 strikeouts in 10.0 innings, ERA: 3.27, WHIP: 0.727

910 eight walks and 14 strikeouts in 13.1 innings, ERA: 2.70, WHIP: 1.500
911 five walks and five strikeouts in 4.2 innings, ERA: 17.36, WHIP: 2.357

Is Bard tired? Im sure he is, but everyone in the game is tired and dinged up by the time September rolls around. Bard has thrown 66.2 innings in 64 appearances, but thats 22nd in the majors in innings pitched for relievers. Look at the Braves closer, Craig Kimbrel, hes thrown 72.2 innings in 74 games and he has 44 saves and so far this month in seven innings and seven games he has walked four, struck out 13 and has 1.143 WHIP.

This is different than fatigue for Bard and way more serious for the Red Sox. He looks totally out-of-sync on the mound and his mechanics are out of whack. Even when he fielded a bunt yesterday, he sidearmed it and threw wide.

It must have been chilly in hell yesterday because John Lackey pitched half-decently and left with the lead. On the rare occasions when that happens, if the Sox are to make any headway in the postseason, these are the games the Sox need to win. The Sox are now 74-4 when leading at the start of the 8th inning. They cant afford to be any worse than that and Bard and Papelbon are the keys to that success.

I dont think that Bard is hurt, I think he is lost and unless he, Tek and pitching coach Curt Young can find him a GPS, Im afraid the Sox will be too.
To see heat maps of Bards performance referred to in this column, check out my article on BaseballAnalytics.org, which has been a data source for this column.

McAdam: Price not exactly hitting stride with postseason on horizon

McAdam: Price not exactly hitting stride with postseason on horizon

NEW YORK -- The division title was there for the taking Tuesday night at Yankee Stadium. When you've won 11 straight and steamrolled every other team in the division, what's one more?

One too many, apparently.

The Red Sox' 6-4 defeat to the New York Yankees postponed the Champagne party for at least one night. In and of itself, that's not a huge concern. The Sox' magic number remains one with five games to play and the club's epic hot streak had to come to an end eventually.

A better night by either David -- Ortiz or Price -- might have resulted in corks popping and on-field celebrations.

Ortiz was 0-for-5 and stranded a total of seven baserunners. When he came to the plate in the top of the ninth against Tyler Clippard with two outs and two on, it almost seemed scripted.

Here was Ortiz in his final Yankee Stadium series, about to inflict one final bit of misery on the rival Yankees with a three-run homer in the top of the ninth.

Talk about drama. Talk about one more famous, final scene.

Alas, Ortiz took some feeble swings and swung through strike three for the final out. Not even Ortiz, for all his clutch performances, can conjure a game-winner on-demand every time.

A far bigger concern was the work of Price. Perhaps the best thing than can be said of him for now is that he almost certainly will not have to face the Yankees again this season, against whom he's compiled a gaudy 7.89 ERA this season.

More troubling, though, is that Price is not exactly hitting his stride as the postseason appears on the near horizon. In his last three starts combined, Price has pitched 19 1/3 innings and allowed 27 hits and 14 runs.

That isn't the line of someone at peak form at the right time. To the contrary, after a run of outings in which it again appeared Price had figured everything out, he's regressed in his last three.

Most troubling Tuesday was a repeated inability to turn back the Yankees after his team had pulled close on the scoreboard.

Price spotted the Yankees a 3-0 lead, and the Sox finally scored twice in the top of the 6th to close within one at 3-2. But Price quickly gave anther run back in the bottom of the inning.

Then the Sox scored two more times in the seventh to tie things at 4-4. . . but Price gave the two runs right back in the bottom of the inning.

"Very frustrating,'' sighed Price. "It's something I talk about all the time. It's a very big deal. And it's something I feel like I've struggled with this entire year. Whenever you're going good, it's something you're doing very well. And whenever you're going bad...you get a lead, give it right back. . . that's tough.''

It also doesn't portend well for the postseason, where Price, as you may have heard, has a spotty track record.

With some strong starts in the final few weeks, he could have reached the playoffs with both momentum and confidence.

Instead, he's got one more start -- Sunday -- to straighten things out.

Ortiz? His postseason bona fides are set.

Price, meanwhile, has no such reservoir of success upon which to draw. And starts like Tuesday's only reinforce the doubts.

 

Quotes, notes and stars: Ortiz goes 0-for-5 in loss to Yankees

david_ortiz_2_092716.jpg

Quotes, notes and stars: Ortiz goes 0-for-5 in loss to Yankees

NEW YORK -- Quotes, notes and stars from the Red Sox' 6-4 loss to the Yankees:

 

QUOTES:

"I went 0-for-5 today, so I ain't got (anything) to talk about.'' - David Ortiz after turning around and seeing a small army of reporters waiting for him in front of his locker.

"To have a chance to clinch the division for us here (and come up sort), it's not acceptable. If my offense scores me four runs, I feel like I should be able to go out there and win.'' - David Price.

"The bottom line story to this one was (Price) mislocating within the strike zone.'' - John Farrell.

 

NOTES:

* Boston's season-best 11-game win streak was snapped with the loss.

* David Price took his first loss since Aug. 7.

* Price is 1-3 with a 7.89 ERA against the Yankees this season.

* Aaron Hill contributed his first pinch-hit homer in his career.

* Mookie Betts saw his streak of reaching base in 38 straight road games stopped.

* Dustin Pedroia posted his third straight multi-hit game.

* For the 20th time this season, Xander Bogaerts enjoyed a three-hit game.

* In his last 12 games, Andrew Benintendi has eight extra-base hits.

* Hill's pinch-hit homer was the third by the Red Sox this month.

 

STARS:

1) Tyler Austin

The rookie first baseman snapped a 4-4 tie in the seventh with a two-run homer and also added two more hits in three at-bats.

2) Gary Sanchez

The first-year catcher continues to amaze, hitting his 20th homer in only his 51st game, sending the Yanks out to a quick 2-0 lead in the first inning.

3) Luis Cessa

Cessa took a big step forward from his last start against the Red Sox by keeping them scoreless through the first five innings before allowing two runs in the sixth.