NFL Picks: Week 6


NFL Picks: Week 6

By Rich Levine

I hate breaking even at the casino.

And when I tell people this, the reaction is pretty standard:

"You're an idiot."

At which point, they go into a ground-breaking explanation about how I should just be grateful for the fact that I didn't lose any money.

But here's the thing: If I'm spending an afternoon, night and often morning sitting around a blackjack table next to a chain-smoking, 62-year-old Asian woman who screams, "Monkey!" in my ear every two seconds, I want to don't want to go home feeling content or grateful. I want to feel like I've done something.

For better or worse, I want to feel like I've gambled.

This is very likely a serious problem, but breaking even leaves me empty. So, you can probably guess how I'm feeling after last week's 7-7 performance in my picks, and why, for better or worse, I'm hoping for a different outcome in Week 6.

Onto the picks:

The Game: Baltimore at New England (-3)

It might be way too early to start talking like this, but I don't think we can understate the importance of this game for New England. The merits of a victory are obvious. If the Patriots can overcome all the bye-week adversity and last season's playoff demons, and beat Baltimore, then it could be the rallying point of something special. It will give the home fans an a chance to immediately embrace the Pats' return to their glory day mentality, and . . . OK, I've gotten carried away. But a win on Sunday sets an essential tone for the post-Moss Patriots Era. It provides them with immediate confidence and justifies all the crap the team went through since last taking the field. With a win, the Pats sit at 4-1 and head out to San Diego feeling fantastic.

On the other hand, a loss just complicates everything. It gives credence to those who feel the Pats offense can't thrive without Moss, and that the decision to trade him may sabotage the season, or even the rest of Brady's prime. These people will be misguided, but they'll now have their own rallying cry. Now there's a lot more riding on that tough game in San Diego, and the Pats won't have as much confidence on their side. Especially once Justin Beiber releases a new track dissing Belichick's defensive schemes.

The Pick: Patriots (-3)

The Game: Miami at Green Bay (no line)

Vegas is waiting on this one until the Packers make an announcement on defense end Cullen Jenkins (and Aaron Rodgers), so as not to add to the confusion, I'll make this one simple.

The Pick: If Rodgers plays, it's Packers. If not, Dolphins.

The Game: Atlanta at Philadelphia (-3)

I can't knock 4-1.

OK, I'm going to knock it a little.

Win No. 1 for the Falcons: 41-7 over average-at-best Arizona.

Win No 2: 27-24 in New Orleans. A huge victory at the time, but when you consider that it was gift-wrapped by Garrett Finkle, and that since then the Saints have barely beaten winless Carolina and lost to average-at-best Arizona, then maybe it's not quite as impressive. Still a big win, just not as big as we thought.

Win No. 3: 16-14 over winless San Francisco, but only because Nate Clements hates his teammates. Wait, sorry, I was feeling very Tom Jackson for a second. What I meant to say is "only because Nate Clements is a moron."

Win No. 4: 20-10 over Seneca Wallace's 1-4 Cleveland Browns.

So, yeah, 4-1 is nothing to sneeze at, but at this point, against that competition, I'm not confident enough to risk my fake money. Fake bummer! This is also Atlanta's third road game in four weeks. Isn't it time for a step back?

If the Falcons have a chance, it's going to come with a serious Kevin Kolb meltdown. To put that another way (aka English): The only way the Falcons win this game is if Kevin Kolb implodes. For what it's worth (fake money!), Atlanta leads the league with 11 interceptions, and has only allowed five passing touchdowns all year.

The Pick: Eagles (-3)

The Game: Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-13.5)

Colt McCoy: Ok, Coach, let's say that I actually do start this game. What's it gonna be like over there?

Eric Mangini: 200 degrees in the sunlight, minus-200 in the shade, canyons of razor-sharp rock, unpredictable gravitational conditions, unexpected eruptions, things like that.

McCoy: Okay, so the scariest environment imaginable. Thanks. That's all you gotta say, scariest environment imaginable

By the way, it's been 12 years since "Armageddon" came out. I swear that reference would have been funny in 1999.

The Pick: Steelers (-13.5)

The Game: Seattle at Chicago (-6.5)

It must be strange for Marshawn Lynch to go from a place where everyone hates him to a team where his coach tries to hug or high-five him every two seconds. Who knows, maybe it will be good for Marshawn? But I have a hard time understanding why everyone's so upbeat about what he'll bring to Seattle. It's been a while already since he was a dominant back. In fact, I'm not sure if he ever even reached that status. He has three 100-yard performances in his last 32 games!

And let's not forget Lynch's knack for finding trouble, and the fact that his new head coach isn't exactly heavy on the discipline.

Loves high-fives, though.

The Pick: Bears (-6.5)

The Game: New Orleans (-4.5) at Tampa Bay

This one's strange for me.

As you know, I've hated the now 3-1 Buccaneers since the jump this season. And despite the impressive record, I haven't waivered on this hatred, or really even looked into why it keeps coming back to bite me.

On the other hand, like most, I was higher than Nate Newton on the Saints coming into the year. I'd predicted an 11-0 start, and figured they'd cruise to another No. 1 seed. But unlike most after the Saints lost to the Falcons, lost Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas, and lost any semblance of a reliable kicking game I never adjusted my expectations. Then I lost on New Orleans two straight weeks, as they barely beat the Panthers and didn't beat the Cardinals.

When it comes to the Bucs and Saints, I'm like a rat on his 10th electrocution, who just can't stop eating the cheese. I keep getting hurt but never learn my lesson. I can't shut off those awful instincts.

Until now. Now, I've finally learned. Now, I must do what's right.

The Pick: Saints (-4.5)

The Game: Kansas City at Houston (-4.5)

The most random Kansas City Chiefs fan I know is Rasheed Wallace, which makes it a shame that he's no longer with the C's . . . I mean, we finally have something in common!

God, I can picture it now:

Me: "Hey, 'Sheed, did you, um, see that Chiefs game on Sunday?

'Sheed: "Yeah."

Me: "Haha. Yeah . . . me too . . . man, that was a great game." (Looks down, awkwardly walks away.)

Anyway, looks like we have the same old Texans on our hands. They just waited a little longer to show their true colors. By next year, they'll keep up the faade until Week 8. In 2013, we're talking playoffs, baby!

The Pick: Chiefs (4.5)

The Game: San Diego (-8.5) at St. Louis

I forgot to mention this in the midst of al the Pete Carroll high-five talk, but until a) I'm proven otherwise or b) Vegas starts adjusting the lines accordingly, I'm betting against the Seahawks every time they're on the road, and very likely betting on them whenever they're at home.

Seattle's one of two teams to earn that distinction five weeks into the season. The
other? You got it . . .

The Rams!

No, wait, sorry. You're wrong. It's the Chargers.

They're completely different team on the road, with an 0-3 record (and losses to the Chiefs, Seahawks and Raiders).

Not sure the Rams win this game, but I'm betting they keep it close.

The Pick: Rams (8.5)

The Game: Detroit at N.Y. Giants (-10)

I hope Shaun Hill ate up all that fun he had against the Rams, because this Sunday all he'll be eating is the fancy New Meadowlands turf.

Matthew Stafford's will be happy he's watching this one from the sidelines. Brandon Jacobs? Probably not so happy (rogue helmet flies into apartment window, crushes laptop).

The Pick: Giants (-10)
The Game: N.Y. Jets (-3) at Denver

The time feels right for a Jets letdown. You get a rowdy Denver crowd, throw in one acrobatic Brandon Lloyd touchdown catch, a Mark Sanchez interception or two, and yeah, there's a chance the Broncos could steal one here.

But in the end, the reason the Broncos won't beat the Jets is the same reason they didn't beat the Ravens: Denver can't run the ball.

Check out these two stats:

Team rushing yards per game:
1. Jets, 165.2&8232;
2. Falcons, 148.8
&8232;3. Chiefs, 148.8
&8232;30. 49ers, 77.8 &8232;
31. Saints, 75.6
&8232;32. BRONCOS, 51.8

Team rushing yards per carry:

1. Eagles, 5.3
&8232;2. Texans, 5.1
&8232;3. Jets, 5.1
30. Saints, 3.3
&8232;31. Colts, 3.2
&8232;32. BRONCOS 2.3

Holy Maroney, that's bad, and against Rex Ryan's defense, it's insurmountable even with Revis still on the sidelines.

The Pick: Jets (-3)

The Game: Oakland at San Francisco (-6.5)

For just one week, Mike Singletary should fake a bout with laryngitis, or strep, or something that would presumably stop him from being such an unrelenting verbal psychopath. Just one time. Just to see if they like it.

Or maybe he can just take a week's vacation? Maybe the organization can use it like a trial separation instead of a clean-cut divorce? Hey, it's good enough for the Cox-Arquettes.

Whatever the method, even if it comes to a straight-up firing, the Niners need a break from the crazy captain of their ship. How does a noted disciplinarian have the league's most undisciplined team? It's clearly not working.

But with all that being said, and while I truly believe despite the mediocrity of the NFC West that the ship has sailed on the 'Niners season, I'm going with San Francisco for this week.

The Raiders may be the only team in the NFL stupider than they are

The Pick: 49ers (-6.5)

The Game: Dallas at Minnesota (-1.5)

Lock of the Week: Tavaris Jackson finishes the game at QB for the Vikings.

Brett Favre Groin Shot of the Week: Click Here

The Pick: Cowboys (1.5)

The Game: Indianapolis (-3) at Washington

The Redskins will be content with a split of these brutal back-to-back home games against the Packers and Colts. Also, betting against Peyton Manning in primetime is about as much fun as sitting bitch on a cross-country flight.

The Pick: Colts (-3)

The Game: Tennessee (-3) at Jacksonville

The Jaguars at home, in primetime, against a division rival . . . The Titans feeling a little giddy off a HUGE road win over Dallas . . . Jeff Fisher's mustache!!

The Pick: Jaguars (3)

The Record:&8232;
Last Week: 7-7&8232;&8232;Season: 25-38-2

Rich Levine's column runs each Monday, Wednesday and Friday on Rich can be reached at Follow Rich on Twitter at http:twitter.comrlevine33

Report: Patriots sign nine undrafted free agents


Report: Patriots sign nine undrafted free agents

The Patriots have reportedly added nine undrafted free agents after selecting nine players in the 2016 NFL Draft.

DJ Foster, RB/WR, Arizona State
Shaquille Powell, RB, Duke
De’Runnya Wilson, TE/WR, Miss State
Steven Scheu, TE, Vanderbilt
Woodrow Hamilton, DT, Mississippi State
CJ Johnson, LB, Mississippi State
V’Angelo Bentley, CB, Illinois
Jonathan Jones, CB, Auburn
Cre’Von LeBlanc, CB, Florida Atlantic

Foster is arguably the highest profile player the Patriots signed and was filmed celebrating the moment.

Foster has the versatility the Patriots looks for. He played running back over his first three collegiate seasons before shifting to wide receiver. He finished his career at Arizona State with 666 total touches for 4,813 yards and 32 touchdowns.

Stay tuned for more…

'Football makeup' central to Pats draft picks


'Football makeup' central to Pats draft picks

FOXBORO – The Patriots added nine players through the draft this weekend.

And when you looked at their resumes and backstories, almost all of them had one of those “Patriot markers” on them. Some had a character trait. Some were from a program that the Patriots particularly trust. Some showed the ability to overcome adversity or be adaptable. And there weren’t any guys that seem to present off-field risks.

None of these markers, of course, are guarantees of anything. They’re all in their early 20s, still in their formative years. There’s no way to project how money, geography, opportunity and competing at this level will change them.

The football, said Nick Caserio, obviously comes first. But who a young player is has to be a big part of the equation.

“It’s everything,” said the Patriots Director of Player Personnel. “I mean, it really is. We try to look each position on the board, each position they have their own particular factors and position skill set that we evaluate and we go through and we assign a grade …There’s certain things that a corner’s going to have to be able to do. There are certain things that a tight end’s going to have to be able to do. Everyone has their own particular skills that they’re going to have to do. Will he check every box? Well maybe not but does he check enough?

“The most important thing is to take the strengths of a player and try to put him into position to where he can utilize those strengths. Not ‘well he doesn’t do this’. Then we won’t put him in that position hopefully. So [we] try to identify what the skill is, how well they do it, and then put them in a position where they can actually see it. So there’s the physical component.”

Then, Caserio said, there’s the projection of how the person will perform.

“Call it ‘football makeup’ component is a central part of it as well,” he said. “Look, we’re not perfect. Some players work the way we think (others don’t). It comes with the territory. But you’re trying to create a profile of the player within our building and then how he’s going to handle everything that comes along with being a New England Patriot. Being in the program, the demands that we place on those players, so you factor everything in. Some players, they may check every single place both from a physical standpoint and from a football-makeup standpoint and you have others that maybe they check enough of them and then you feel comfortable about that level.”

Rolling through the players they took, it’s interesting to try and see what may have been a “football makeup” draw with each. Second-round corner Cyrus Jones played for Nick Saban at Alabama. He’s played in the biggest games and shown well in them. He’s a film junkie. He tackles well. He plays with a chip on his shoulder. He’s not the biggest corner. But he’s got an edge and he excels on special teams.

Third-rounder Joe Thuney is “very productive, very durable, very bright; probably as intelligent as anybody at that position,” said Caserio. He also can play anywhere on the line. Smarts and versatility are highly valued by the Patriots.

Third-round quarterback Jacoby Brissett is a gifted, charismatic leader who’s had a relationship with Bill Parcells since Brissett was in high school. “I can't even describe what type of person he is and what he's meant to my life,” said Brissett. “Just him grooming me as a man and preparing me for tough times, hard times, good times. He's been so helpful to me throughout this process and just keeping my steady and keeping a good head on my shoulders and you know I just can't thank him enough.”

Third-rounder Vincent Valentine from Nebraska? Versatile big man who can play all over the defensive line.

Malcolm Mitchell, the Georgia wide receiver? You couldn’t find a more likable and genuine kid, it seems. And the scouting report offered by longtime draft analyst Nolan Nawrocki? “A tough, passionate, crafty slot receiver who can be trusted to move the sticks in critical situations … Brings similar energy, toughness and attitude as Steelers 1998 third-round pick Hines Ward. Smart and versatile enough to contribute in multiple roles perhaps even at cornerback where he began his Georgia career and could be most attractive to a veteran coaching staff such as the Patriots or Steelers.”

Kamu Grugier-Hill? A safety who can play at the linebacker level and has huge special teams upside that comes with a recommendation from Eastern Illinois college teammate Jimmy Garoppolo. Another sixth-rounder, Elandon Roberts? Big-time character guy who doesn’t have great measurables but had great production. Seventh-rounder Ted Karras? A four-year starter at guard in the Big Ten with Illinois. Seventh-round wideout Devin Lucien? Dedicated student who was able to switch from UCLA to Arizona State as a graduate transfer and still go out and be very productive with the Sun Devils in his final collegiate season.

There aren’t any real injury dice rolls.

There aren't any character dice rolls.

The “football makeup” seems to be there.


“They have no idea what they’re getting into,” said Bill Belichick on Saturday night. “It’s not their fault. We all had to go through it at some point or another. They’re going to get a big dose of what they probably haven’t had a whole lot of, certainly any time recently. It’s a big load. The competition level is going to step up. The volume is going to step up. It’s not a scholarship. In college they can’t take them away from you. In the NFL you’re fighting for a job so it’s a whole new ball game.”

In the end, football ability will be the main determinant as to whether they stay or go. But the Patriots made sure that – at least on the surface – they all appear to have the ability to withstand what’s going to be coming at them.