A1: The Alphabet is back!
Hey there and welcome to another season of the NFL Preview that the New York Times called “precise and brilliantly realized.” No, wait — that’s from their review of Boyhood — but either way the Alphabet is back with your weekly dose of picks, predictions, trivia, letters from Roger Goodell and one-act plays about Ed Hochuli’s biceps. Plus, new this year: A weekly portrait from sketch artist Jane Rosenberg!
Here we go.
Big Game: Seattle (0-1) at Green Bay (1-0)
This week’s honor belongs to the Sunday night game in Green Bay, where the two-time defending NFC champion Seahawks are staring down the steal beamed barrel of 0-2. This a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship and no one would be surprised if the same two teams meet again. However if the Packers win on Sunday they’ll own a two-game lead, plus the home field advantage tie breaker. In other words that’s a three-game edge two games into the season.
Right now it’s hard to pinpoint exactly what’s wrong with the Seahawks. Can they do this without Cam Chancellor? Has Pete Carroll lost control? Is this all God’s plan? Or maybe there’s nothing wrong at all? Maybe they were just a miracle removed from winning the Super Bowl, fell on some bad luck in St. Louis and will take the field on Sunday looking like the conference champs.
Or maybe it’s time to bite the bullet and hand over the play calling to Marshawn Lynch’s mom.
New England Patriots
Conference Calls:
New York Jets (1-0) at Indianapolis (0-1) — Monday night: They’re calling this a “Battle of the Brains” between Harvard’s Ryan Fitzpatrick and Stanford’s Andrew Luck, but that silly narrative has nothing on what will unfold at halftime — when the Colts unveil their new “Hosted MondayNight Football” banner.
Atlanta (1-0) at New York Giants (0-1): A week later and it’s still so hard to comprehend want went down at that the end of the Giants loss in Dallas. How can an entire professional team forget basic football strategy at such a critical time?
After some long hours and invaluable assistance from a team of ESPN researchers, we’ve narrowed it down to one possible explanation: It was Bill Belichick’s fault.
San Diego (1-0) at Cincinnati (1-0): The only difference between Andy Dalton and Philip Rivers is that Rivers looks competitively pissed after a big interception while Dalton just looks goofy.
Baltimore (0-1) at Oakland (0-1): The Ravens have never started 0-2 in seven seasons under John Harbaugh. Same goes for the Raiders in their time under Jack Del Rio.
Arizona (1-0) at Chicago (0-1): Did you know that the Cardinals franchise originated in Chicago back in 1920? Well it did and of course that season is best remembered for league president Jim Thorpe’s controversial decision to suspend Chicago QB Sid Nichols four games for ball deflation.
The suspension cost Nichols a then-league record $5 in game checks.
Miami (1-0) at Jacksonville (0-1): Tough start for the Dolphins, who opened the season last week against the sorry ‘Skins and follow it up this week with a trip to lowly Jacksonville. Maybe next week they’ll forego their battle with Buffalo for an exhibition against the 2008 Lions.
St. Louis (1-0) at Washington (0-1): It would be very Rams-like to come off last week’s win over Seattle with a clunker against the Skins. Then again it would be very Skins-like to have the other team play a clunker and still find a way to lose.
Tennessee (1-0) at Cleveland (0-1): Marcus Mariota debuted last week against former Heisman winner Jameis Winston. This week he’ll face another former Heisman winner in Johnny Manziel. But don’t worry about Marcus — he’ll finally catch a break next week against non-Heisman winner Andrew Luck.
Division Drama:
New England (1-0) at Buffalo (1-0): “This is the year!” – Buffalo, every year.
Dallas (1-0) at Philadelphia (0-1): Life won’t be an easy for the Cowboys on the road, in the division, without their number one receiver and playing against a quarterback who understands that an incomplete pass stops the clock.
Tampa Bay (0-1) at New Orleans (0-1): Hard to imagine that Jameis Winston’s second game will go much worse than his debut, but in this case there’s always a chance that a piece of the Superdome falls on his head.
Detroit (0-1) at Minnesota (0-1): Adrian Peterson returns to Minnesota for his first home game in more than two years — talk about a feel good story!
Everyone Else: The rest of the rest.
Houston (0-1) at Carolina (0-1): Bill O’Brien turns to Ryan Mallet over Brian Hoyer this Sunday— and if that doesn’t work he’ll roll the dice with either Rohan Davey or Matt Gutierrez.
San Francisco (1-0) at Pittsburgh (0-1): The Steelers are six-point favorites and better hope they come through. No one’s gonna buy the “Belichick told Jim Tomsula all our plays” excuse.
Forecast: It’s the most boring time of year for NFL weather. There’s no rain. There’s no snow. There’s only a little bit of wind. In the meantime if you’re looking for a weather-related storyline this week, keep an eye on Carolina — where Vince Wilfork goes head-to-head with four quarters of 89-degree heat.
Goodell’s Corner: As always, your weekly note from NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell:
“Guys! How are you? Can’t believe it’s been eight months since my last letter, but at any rate — I missed you. Did you have a good offseason? Take any fun trips? See any good movies? Ahhh! You know I’m really just so happy to be back because that means football is back — and I looooove football. You know I love football. You know I love the fans. And most of all you know I love that I can sit here at my keyboard and just pretend that everything is awesome. I can play as dumb as I want and lie as much as I want and keep cashing my checks and there’s nothing you can do about it. Yes. You! I mean you can stop reading this letter at any time but I know you won’t. You’ll never stop. And for that I know we’re gonna have a lot of fun together this season. I really can’t wait.
Until next time, go Bills!
Hot Seat: There’s no logical reason for Chuck Pagano to be on the hot seat in Indianapolis, but when you’ve got a general manager like Ryan Grigson and an owner like Jim Irsay, well you can throw logic right out the window as you’re speeding down the highway with a bag of cash and enough pills to open your own pharmacy. Either way we’ve reached the point where too many people — and the right people — have reported on Pagano’s limbo. There has to be something to it. The speculation is real. And nothing would take that speculation to the next level quite like a primetime loss at home against the Jets.
Infirmary: Game-time decisions that could turn game day results.
Mike Evans (hamstring): Evans might not be enough to save the Bucs in New Orleans but Jameis will take all the help he can get.
T.Y. Hilton (knee): At first the Colts thought Hilton might be lost for a few weeks but now they’re optimistic he’ll play on Monday. Seems like an unnecessary risk with your No. 1 receiver this early in the season but again — remember — this is the same team that traded a number one pick for Trent Richardson.
Luke Kuechly (concussion): Ron Rivera says that he won’t play Kuechly unless the linebacker is absolutely 100 percent healthy, and if he sits that’s a huge break for the Texans. Then again Kuechly could spend all day on the sidelines and still finish with 10 tackles and an interception.
Judgment Day: Teams with the most on the line this week:
AFC – The Colts don’t want to start 0-2 (again) but the AFC South still stinks. Indianapolis could go 0-3 and still have the division clinched by Thanksgiving. So let’s flip the Monday night game and focus on the Jets. A win would be huge for the Jets. Not only would they improve to 2-0 for the first time since 2011 but look at their schedule after that. They host the Eagles next week — a winnable game. Then they head down to Miami which is always close in the division. After that the Jets play three of the next four against the Redskins, Raiders and Jaguars. With a winon Monday night, New York could set themselves up for a potential 5-4 or even 6-3 start. With a loss on Monday night? Well, they’re still the Jets.
NFC – The Bears lost their opener to Green Bay but have a chance to get even this week at home against the Cardinals. If not they’ll fall to 0-2 and play next week at Seattle followed by a home game against the Raiders and back-to-back road games in Kansas City and Detroit. In that case Chicago could very well be looking at 1-5 heading into the bye week. So yeah, they need this one.
Keeping the Faith: (The following message is brought to you by the Church of NFL Fans For Peace And Moral Justification)
Peyton Manning played a football game last night in Kansas City so no one felt the need to talk about much of anything else — BUT it was very cool to see Chiefs safety Eric Berry back in front of his home fans for the first time he was diagnosed with Hodgkin’s lymphoma last December. And with that emotional return in the rearview it’s even cooler that Berry can keep turning the page and get back to doing what he does best: Dominating the secondary and acting terrified of horses.
Life of Hochuli: It’s 5 am on Sunday morning and Ed Hochuli sits cross-legged in the middle of the National Mall. He takes a deep breath and scans his eyes across the historic landscape.
Hochuli: Ahh yes, look it this, boys. Sure is something, huh?
Hochuli (in a high-pitched voice, flexing his right bicep): “Sure is, Papa. What a view! Is that the place where Ben Franklin signed the Declaration of Independence?
Hochuli (in a deep voice, flexing his left bicep): That’s in Philadelphia, STUPID!”
Hochuli (in a high-pitched voice): No, YOU’RE stupid, STUPID.
Hochuli: OK, that’s quite enough you two. Daddy needs to concentrate. He’s got Rams/Redskins this afternoon.
Milestones: By the end of this season — save for injury — Tom Brady and Drew Brees will jump Dan Marino into third and fourth place on the all time touchdown list. Or maybe it will be fourth and third. I don’t know. We’ll see. But for now Brady and Brees are in a race to be the fourth quarterback ever to throw 400 career touchdowns.
Brees has the advantage at the moment. He only needs three for 400 and this week he’ll be at home on the turf against a Bucs defense that surrendered four scores to Marcus Mariota. Meanwhile, Brady needs four for 400, and he’s up in Buffalo against Rex Ryan. But who knows? Anything can happen.
The craziest thing of all is still that by season’s end both Brady and Brees will have more career touchdown passes than Dan Marino.
Numbers Game: 0-2
Last year seven teams started the season 0-2 and the Colts were the only one to make the playoffs. The year before that there were nine 0-2 teams and the Panthers were the only one to make the playoffs. Before that you have to go all the way back to 2008 to find a team that dug itself an 0-2 hole but climbed all the way out and into the postseason. So with that here’s heads up to the Colts, Seahawks, Steelers, Ravens and all the other playoff hopefuls staring down 0-2. “HEAD’s UP!”
Only the Lonely: Here’s where we track and speculate on who will be the last winless team in the NFL. These are the current top five candidates from weakest to strongest:
5) Cleveland: The Brown have a solid shot this week at home against the Titans and then again next week at home against the Raiders. Smart money says they win one of those, but if not the Browns will be in some trouble. Their remaining opponents are Pittsburgh (x2), Baltimore (x2) and Cincinnati (x2); home games against Arizona, Denver and San Francisco; and road trips to San Diego, St. Louis, Seattle and Kansas City.
4) Tampa: This is so reliant on Jameis’ development and we have no clue how long it will take. For now it seems like the Bucs are headed for at least an 0-4 start with their best chance coming in Week 5 at home against the Jags.
3) Washington: The Skins will start 0-6 with their first win coming in Week 7 at home against the Bucs. What a disaster in DC — and it couldn’t happen to a better franchise!
2) Oakland: The Raiders will start 0-7 with their first win coming at home against the Jets in Week 8. That’s not good but still better than last year’s 0-10 start.
1) Jacksonville: You heard it hear first (maybe?) — The Jaguars will start 0-9 and earn their first win in Week 11, on Thursday Night Football, at home against the Titans.
Patriots Place™: The Patriots will beat the Bills this week 20-17 in an ugly, ugly game that turns on a late Tyrod Taylor turnover. But in the event that this prediction goes wrong, and Brady looks bad and the Pats fall short, can we please — PLEASE — keep the crazy pills in the medicine cabinet for another week or two. Seriously if you get that urge just think about last year in Kansas City. Think about how stupid we all were and how embarrassed we should all be. It’s Week 2. Say it again with me. It’s Week 2!
Quiz Show: With Brady and Brees both making a run at 400 touchdowns, can you name each guy’s top three touchdown recipients? For instance, for Peyton Manning the answer would be Marvin Harrison (112), Reggie Wayne (67) and Dallas Clark (44). For Brett Favre it would be Antonio Freeman (57), Sterling Sharpe (41) and Donald Driver (36). For Akili Smith it would Peter Warrick (2), Carl Pickens (2) and Ron Dugans (1).
But who are three for Brady and Brees?
* * * * * *
Answer —
Brady: Rob Gronkowski (56), Randy Moss (39) and Wes Welker (34)
Brees: Marques Colston (68), Jimmy Graham (51) and Lance Moore (38)
Reunion: With all the moving parts in the NFL there are a few good reunions every week, butthis Sunday’s best features DeMarco Murray and the Cowboys.
Don’t just take my word for it.
Listen to DeMarco!
“I’m not worried about it,” Murray said this week. “It’s Week 2. No matter who it is, I’m going to do the same thing I’ve been doing. Not going to do anything different with my preparation and not try to go out there and do this and that to be special. Just run our plays and go from there.”
Damn. Getcha popcorn ready.
Survivor: There are a bunch of solid Survivor picks on the table this week, like the Steelers over the Niners or the Ravens over the Raiders or the Colts over the Jets — but the official pick is New Orleans over Tampa Bay for two reasons.
1) The Bucs are not very good.
2) The Saints don’t seem to be very good either but they’re better than the Bucs, especially at home. So while most years you might hesitate to use New Orleans early because they might come in handy late, in this case there’s no need to wait. After this week the Saints go to Carolina, then host Dallas, the go to Philly, then host the Falcons, then go to Indianapolis, and then host the Giants. All of sudden it’s November and at no point between now and then will there be another urge to use them, so use them now and move on.
Trash Talk: The Bills have a new highly visible display in their pro shop that sells a line of air pumps.
Reports say that Bill Belichick plans to buy one and have Jim McNally insert it into Rex Ryan’s belly button.
Upset of the Week: The ideal Upset of the Week is a home underdog, but this week the only real home underdogs are the Raiders, Jaguars and Skins. That’s like choosing between a hot iron to the forehead, an icicle in the eye ball and a lukewarm bubble bath with Daniel Snyder — so instead let’s move this week’s Upset of the Week outside the comfort zone and go with the Falcons on the road over the Giants. Just feels like it will take at least a game or two for New York to recover from the shell shock of last week.
And I’m not talking about the end of the Cowboys game but rather those photos of what’s left of Jason Pierre-Paul’s hand.
Vegas Value: These are real props bets and the Alphabet loves them.
Scott Chandler scores a touchdown and the Pats win (+1000): The Pats showed last week that they’ll be looking for Chandler in the red zone, and knowing Bill Belichick, he’ll go out of his way to get Chandler a score against his former team. If you already believe the Pats will win then this play at those odds is a no-brainer.
Antonio Brown has 10 or more catches (+450): Bryant had nine catches on the road last week even though Bill Belichick was stealing all Pittsburgh’s plays. You can imagine what he’ll do on Sunday at home against the 49ers, with LeVeon Bell still out, and Brown and Heath Miller as the only two targets that Ben Roethlisberger trusts.
Ryan Fitzpatrick over 2.5 interceptions (+600): Hey did you know Fitzpatrick went to Harvard?
Worst of the Week: There aren’t many great games this week but there also aren’t many horrible games. Ravens/Raiders has the urgency of Baltimore trying to avoid 0-2. Rams/Skins has an exciting Rams team going for a perfect start. So this week we’re rolling with Dolphins/Jaguars as the worst game of the week as Miami attempts to complete the least impressive 2-0 start in NFL history.
X Marks The Controversy: "Keep moving," said the commissioner, "Keeeeeep moving. Nothing to see here. Guys I'm serious if you don't keep moving I'm gonna have to create another fake scandal!"
Yesterday’s News: Peyton Manning was dead but now he’s alive until he’s dead again. Meanwhile Andy Reid is still and always very dead.
Zee End: That’s it. Enjoy the games.
Follow me on Twitter @rich_levine
http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/13683336/buffalo-bills-poke-fun-new-england-patriots-air-pump-display