FOXBORO – The week before the first game of the NFL season usually has a countdown to Christmas feel to it. There’s some happy anticipation. This season, it just means relief. Relief that the league-sponsored hit job carried out with owner approval and slapped down in federal court is bumped by the game. Relief that the media-content void which has been filled by attacks, counterattacks, smear jobs, hypocrisy, legal mumbo-jumbo, and a proliferation of armchair ombudsmen (and that’s just at our shop!), is going to be filled. Relief that we can all stop being rabbit-eared and reactionary to every damn story, tweet and sentence that – in the end – aren’t real. Just words on a screen. Tonight, we begin to figure out if the theory that the grueling and unnecessary drama of the offseason did exact a toll or not.
WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL
The interior of the Patriots offensive line is unsettled. Bryan Stork is out (concussion) so do they go with veteran Ryan Wendell at center (he’s been mainly a guard and only was healthy enough to play in the final preseason game), or do they use young David Andrews there? He took the bulk of the preseason snaps. And the guard positions are going to have rookies Tre Jackson and Shaq Mason in the mix to differing degrees, as well. The Patriots will likely shuffle line personnel to make sure everyone stays fresh and to continue working to find their best combos. Inadequate line play held the Patriots offense hostage for the first month last year. It’s bound to feel a little choppy against the Steelers as well. The Patriots ground game wasn’t impressive in the preseason and, without LeGarrette Blount (suspended), the team has four backs on the roster whose skills have mostly been directed toward changeup-back duties as opposed to between-the-tackles work. Leads me to believe we’ll see a fair amount of empty backfield and spread formations that allows Tom Brady to take advantage of their skills and mitigates Pittsburgh’s pass rush. The Steelers have talent in the front-seven, particularly at the linebacker level. Their biggest question marks are in the secondary. Feels like a pitch-and-catch game plan with Julian Edelman and the backs. The Patriots will need to be quick to adjust with the Steelers playing their first game under new defensive coordinator Keith Butler, who is bound to show things that were unanticipated. Cam Heyward, Ryan Shazier and Lawrence Timmons will be names you’ll hear a few times tonight.
WHEN THE STEELERS HAVE THE BALL
The Steelers are minus LeVeon Bell and Martavis Bryant and won’t have center Marukice Pouncey. They aren’t imposing on the offensive line. But they will have Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown. Both are top-five talents at their positions. The Patriots’ will boil their game plan down to keeping careful watch on Brown. He threatens at every level and is dangerous after the catch so New England will need to play up on him to guard against tear screens to the perimeter of the defense. But not giving Brown cushion means he’s a threat to blow by and puts heat on safeties to shade his way. Big challenge tonight for the corners just entering the Patriots system, Bradley Fletcher and Tarell Brown. Communication on Brown is absolutely vital. If Brown is the first job, keeping track of tight end Heath Miller is the second. He catches everything and is ROethlisbeger’s bailout guy. Speedy Markus Wheaton is going to have opportunities tonight with the Patriots shading to stop Brown. The Steelers are a mediocre running team. Without Bell, they are less than that. How the Patriots choose to deploy their talent in the front-seven – particularly Jabaal Sheard, Donta Hightower and Jamie Collins – is going to be interesting to watch. They have a lot of players who are good enough to be on the field every snap but not enough spots for them.
THE KICKING GAME
The Steelers have a former Australian Rules kicker who was working at McDonald’s Down Under at this time punting in his first NFL game. That’s Jordan Berry. They also had to trade for veteran kicker Josh Scobee after losing Shaun Suisham in the preseason. So there’s some uncertainty there. The Patriots had some sketchy moments in kick coverage in the preseason and have a new special teams coach, Joe Judge, taking over for the retired Scott O’Brien. Stephen Gostkowski and Ryan Allen are consistently very good with their feet. We’ll see who the Patriots turn to on kickoff and punt returns. Dion Lewis was deep for kickoffs and Danny Amendola has fielded some punts. Rookie Chris Harper isn’t ready for that in a regular-season game, in my opinion.
PATRIOTS MEDICAL REPORT
OUT: C Bryan Stork (concussion). QUESTIONABLE: RB Travaris Cadet (hamstring), DE Trey Flowers (knee), S Tavon Wilson (knee)
STEELERS MEDICAL REPORT
OUT: QB Landry Jones (concussion)
GAME WITHIN THE GAME
Sideline adjustments and the roles of the two coaching staffs. This game, as much as any, is in the hands of the coaching staff which is decisive and prepared. Early in the game, there will be personnel, schemes, formations, blitzes and motions unloaded just to give the sidelines something to work through. Sometimes, it’s no more than smoke-and-mirrors, a feint to set up something else later. Sometimes, it’s a staple of the game plan. Both teams have turnover to deal with at key spots where communication is key – secondary and offensive line. The coaches need to be able to articulate what things went wrong and what may be coming next simply and understandably.
STEELERS GOTTA STOP
Is this the first time I mention Rob Gronkowski? This is the first time I mention Rob Gronkowski. Ryan Shazier said the Steelers could deal with him by getting up and being physical with him. Easier said than done.
PATRIOTS GOTTA STOP
Antonio Brown. The Patriots don’t have to split their focus between two elite players – Brown and Bell – so they can lock in on making sure this great one doesn’t take over the game.
DON'T BE SURPRISED IF
It’s sloppy. We got weather. We got inexperienced offensive lines. We got injuries and absences among the skill players. We have a league in which – traditionally – the defenses are ahead of the offenses early in the season. All adds up to a few three-and-outs.
THAT SUMS IT UP PATRIOTS STYLE
“Even when guys are close to him, he has one-step or two-step quickness to get away. He’s got really good hands, so he doesn’t need a lot of separation. He can extend and catch the ball away from his body, and he’s a good technique route runner, so he does a good job of making routes looks the same, but they're different – making the inside route and the outside route look the same or the over and the corner route look the same – things like that. His releases are good...He’s a good player at all three levels of the defense and very hard to tackle after he gets the ball in his hands, so that’s a problem, too. I mean, this is not the kind of guy you want to just back off and just let them throw it to him and come up and make the tackle because that will be a challenge. Then on the other hand you don't want to be up there and let him get over the top of the defense, either. He’s a huge problem.” – Bill Belichick on Antonio Brown
THAT SUMS IT UP STEELERS STYLE
“Preseason is so challenging because you never know – defenses maybe don’t want to show everything. Maybe they show some false, bluffing-type things. Really it’s a matter of trying to look at film from last year or the last time we played them in 2013. So we just try to look at all kinds of different things. It showed a lot when Darrelle Revis was out there. Obviously they chose to let him go one-one-one with the other team’s best. We are just going to keep looking at different things and try to find some tendencies. I know we won’t be able to find too many because of the genius that Coach Belichick is, but we will try to make some in-game adjustments as well.” – Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger on the unknown plans in an opener
THE WINNER IS...
Patriots 20, Steelers 16