So are the Patriots “settling” for Chris Hogan? Yes. If the out-of-the-gate players they pursued were Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu (with a dash of Travis Benjamin and Rishard Matthews) and they got none of the above, of course they are settling for Hogan. He is their fifth option. Are they now “overpaying” or making a desperation move as a result? If someone chooses to frame it that way, sure. But when the other options are gone and your fifth option becomes the first option, it logically follows that the sweetness of an offer would reflect that. Saying, “Well, we’d rather have no new options at wideout in 2016 than extend a surprisingly generous offer to a player who’s been a 40-catch guy for two years…” would be negligent. And it wouldn’t account for the fact the Patriots are signing Hogan not with the expectation he continues at the level he’s been at but so that he can take on a bigger role.
The three-year, $12 million offer, with $5.5M up front, shouldn’t upset the wide receiver pay scale. Julian Edelman’s extension in early 2014 was for four years and $19M, with $5M up front, when the cap was about $22M lower than it is now. Hogan isn’t being paid more than Edelman. And while I was all aboard the Sanu train this week, it’s understandable why the Patriots might view trying to beat the five-year, $32M deal Sanu got from Atlanta as too rich if Hogan was a comparable player who projected well in the New England offense. This offer – if accepted – will bring into focus Danny Amendola’s role going forward. Amendola’s got a $5M base salary and a $6.8M cap hit. Do the Patriots view Hogan as a complement, eventual replacement for Amendola or will they see Amendola as being immediately replaceable. Using Hogan as a reason to cast aside Amendola would be a mistake. Amendola’s at a point where he’s got Tom Brady’s trust, can catch 50-plus passes, understands the offense and role, is Edelman insurance and has special teams value. Does he make more than is ideal? Yes. But whatever minimal savings would be achieved by bringing Amendola “in line” with what the team may think is more realistic is not worth taking a hard, “take-it-or-leave-it” stance to accomplish.
It’s impossible to avoid comparisons between Hogan, Amendola, Edelman and Wes Welker. Like Amendola, Hogan got the “plucky, undrafted, scrappy white receiver” treatment on HBO’s Hard Knocks. Like Edelman – who switched from quarterback to wideout when he got to the NFL – Hogan made a transition. He went from lacrosse player at Penn State to football player at Monmouth. And, like Welker, Hogan is a restricted free agent from the AFC East that the Patriots made an offer to after growing weary of trying to defend him.
Of course, the Patriots are lampooned for pursuing Hogan because he looks like he came off the same production line as those three players. I’m not sure if the idea is the Patriots should feel badly for pursuing (mostly) short, quick, choppy-stepping guys that can take hits, are deadly in short spaces, aren’t that great downfield, were overlooked in the draft and happen to be Caucasian. But it’s worked well so far. And the forerunner of all Welker, Edelman, Amendola and Hogan? Troy Brown.
The one thing that sets Hogan apart from those guys is his size. He’s 6-1, 215 as opposed to the 5-10, 190 standard of the others. He is, actually, more similar to Austin Collie who was 6-0, 205 pounds and was terrific with the Colts until Peyton Manning threw him too many hospital balls. The size is nice and the slot-outside versatility is welcomed but the strength of any receiver the Patriots sign is in his ability to get open and catch the ball. Brandon LaFell didn’t do either well enough. That’s why he became expendable. Sanu has outstanding hands – no drops on 49 targets in 2015. Hogan had four drops on 59 targets last season (6.8 percent). Hogan is faster than Sanu and gets more separation. There are different circumstances each player deals with in his role – Edelman dropped more than eight percent of his targets but he’s collecting bullet throws in traffic while on the move, so, it’s going to happen more than it would for an outside guy – but the bottom line is that Hogan’s shown the ability to separate and make catches in traffic inside and out.
What if the Bills match? Well, the Patriots will still be light at wideout and – for an air-based offensive attack – that just won’t do. It will mean the team has to cast a wider net (Percy Harvin? Anquan Boldin?). Or it they’ll have to roll the dice again in the draft (where Sterling Shepard from Oklahoma is the perfect fit). Or they may have to go back to LaFell and do the “devil you know” deal if nobody else signs him. In short, Chris Hogan wasn’t the perfect answer for the Patriots at wide receiver. But, at this point, he’ll more than do.
New England Patriots
