Fairley numbers suggest he'd help Patriots replace Hicks

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Soon after it was reported that the Patriots were set to meet with defensive lineman Nick Fairley at the NFL Annual Meeting this week, Pro Football Focus senior analyst Sam Monson tweeted, "Now that would be a hell of a signing for NE."

Though Fairley was the No. 13 overall pick in 2011, he hasn't quite lived up to that billing over the course of his five-year career. While with the Rams last season, a team with on one of the most talented defensive lines in football, he racked up 29 tackles and a half-sack in 427 snaps.

At first glance, those numbers don't necessarily scream "hell of a signing."

But a quick look at some of the more advanced metrics as they pertained to Fairley's game paints a picture of a player who had more of an impact than his stat line would indicate. 

When assessing the play of defensive tackles across the league last season, Pro Football Focus graded Fairley as the 11th best among players who played in at least 25 percent of their defensive snaps. His overall grade of 20.0 ranked him just behind Buffalo's Marcel Dareus (22.8) and just ahead of Dominique Easley (15.6) and Akiem Hicks (11.2) of the Patriots. Only five players at the position -- including Aaron Donald of the Rams, Geno Atkins of the Bengals and Ndamukong Suh of the Dolphins -- had better pass-rush grades than Fairley. 

The Pro Football Focus statistic that tracks pass-rush productivity -- analyzing how often a player records a sack, quarterback hit or hurry relative to the number of times he rushes the passer -- had Fairley ranked as the No. 18 defensive tackle in the league last season with a pressure percentage of 6.7. Easley (12.9) ranked as the best at the position in 2015, while Hicks (8.5) checked in at No. 6.

In 2014, however, while with the Lions, Fairley was the most productive pass-rusher from the defensive tackle spot when healthy. He put up a 10.0 pressure percentage, though his total snaps were down after playing in just eight games. 

Fairley was ranked No. 17 last season among defensive tackles in terms of the Pro Football Focus statistic that charts run-stop ability. In 173 snaps against the run, he made 18 tackles and assisted on eight others. His run-stop percentage checked in at 9.2 percent, which was a fraction of a point behind Hicks (9.5), but still a better number than those posted by New England's Alan Branch (8.7), Kansas City's Dontari Poe (8.7), Suh (7.1) and Detroit's Haloti Ngata (6.1).

At 6-foot-5, 291 pounds, Fairley is built differently than Hicks (6-5, 324 pounds), who signed with the Bears as a free agent last week. And while he has had some durability issues -- he has played in 61 of a possible 80 regular-season games in five years -- when Fairley is on the field, he's proven to be highly effective against both the run and the pass. 

With the Patriots looking for added depth on the interior of their defensive line after both Hicks and Sealver Siliga (signed with the Seahawks) left for new teams this offseason, Fairley seems as though he would be a logical fit. 

If Fairley, who is reportedly meeting with the Patriots at the NFL Annual Meeting in Boca Raton, Fla. this week, ends up joining coach Bill Belichick's defense, he'd lend depth to a position group that includes Branch, Easley, Malcom Brown, Chris Jones, Ishmaa'ily Kitchen and Joe Vellano.

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