EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. – The Jets haven’t lost after Thanksgiving – 4-0 – and are in a must-win position on Sunday as they chase a Wild Card playoff berth. The Patriots are in and have a first-round bye, but they can still make sure they won’t have to go on the road in the playoffs by getting the No. 1 seed. A win over the Jets delivers that. But the Patriots’ injury situation is at critical mass on both sides of the ball. The complement of players they’ll run out onto the MetLife Stadium turf Sunday at 1 is not that daunting.
WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL
With Brandon LaFell and Danny Amendola wounded and questionable and Julian Edelman doubtful, the Patriots are down to Keshawn Martin as the only healthy wideout that’s caught a pass this season. In the backfield, the Patriots have blown the dust off of Steven Jackson and will trot him out against the Jets for who knows what kind of performance. Gronk was this week removed from the injury report entirely, but the Jets will understand that he is the entire key to the Patriots offense and will make the Patriots go elsewhere to move the ball. You could say “just run the ball” but the Jets have allowed just 243 yards on the ground in the past four games and the defensive line with Muhammad Wilkerson, Leonard Williams and nose tackle Damon Harrison has become a stern test. The Patriots barely ran it the first time they faced this defense. They may have to this time because they have no other options through the air. Expect the reliance on James White to continue to grow.
WHEN THE JETS HAVE THE BALL
The Jets aren’t the most potent offense in the league but they have a well-constructed offense with two big wideouts (Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker), a power back (Chris Ivory), a pass-catching changeup back (Bilal Powell) and a quarterback who at least knows what he’s doing (Ryan Fitzpatrick). The first time these teams met, Ivory got hurt early in the game and wasn’t himself. The Jets made most of their big plays on throws to Eric Decker who was being checked by Malcolm Butler. That was probably Butler’s least effective game. This time around, the Patriots will face a full-go Ivory and won’t have a full-speed Donta Hightower, their key run-stopper at the linebacker level. Additionally, the downfield presence of Devin McCourty may be missed as he continues to work through his high ankle sprain. The Patriots will need to get after Fitzpatrick up front with their pass rush because Marshall and Decker are a problem if the ball is allowed to come out on time. As prone in the past as Fitzpatrick has been to interceptions, he’s taken very good care of the ball this season.
THE KICKING GAME
The Jets are pretty atrocious in the punting game. Ryan Quigley is their punter and his net is 36.3. The Jets are allowing 12.8 per return. The Patriots, however, aren’t in a position to exploit that because Julian Edelman is probably out and Danny Amendola shouldn’t be returning punts with his knee in disrepair. He can fair-catch them, fine. Shouldn’t return them. The Patriots have had a return gaffe in four straight games. Very unusual. Jeremy Kerley and Antonio Cromartie have been their main punt and kickoff return guys. Jets kicker Randy Bullock has missed two field goals and an extra point in the past two games.
PATRIOTS MEDICAL REPORT
OUT: LB Jonathan Freeny (hand); DOUBTFUL: WR Julian Edelman (foot); QUESTIONABLE: WR Danny Amendola (knee), TE Scott Chandler (knee), S Patrick Chung (foot), S Nate Ebner (ankle), LB Dont'a Hightower (knee), G Josh Kline (shoulder), WR Brandon LaFell (foot), S Devin McCourty (ankle); PROBABLE: CB Justin Coleman (hand), DE Chandler Jones (abdomen).
JETS MEDICAL REPORT
DOUBTFUL: DB Dee Milliner (hamstring); QUESTIONABLE: WR Quincy Enunwa (neck), PROBABLE: TE Kellen Davis (back), WR Eric Decker (knee), QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (left thumb), T Breno Giacomini (ankle), LB David Harris (back), C Nick Mangold (hand), WR Brandon Marshall (ankle), CB Dexter McDougle (ankle), LB Calvin Pace (abdomen), QB Geno Smith (illness)
GAME WITHIN THE GAME
Playing time management. The Patriots sew up the No. 1 seed with a win so the lure of going all out with everybody who passes muster medically will be there. But, as Belichick spoke about at length earlier in the week, there are varying stages of readiness to play. Some guys can go 10 plays, some guys can take a full workload. Some guys may get a setback. Defensively, Donta Hightower and Devin McCourty are both critical to the team’s long-term success and both are questionable for the game. Offensively, Danny Amendola is starting to wear down and needs managing for the postseason.
JETS GOTTA STOP
Rob Gronkowski. Pretty simple. Every wideout of note – Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, Brandon LaFell – is hurt. The running game is still being refashioned with the edition of Steven Jackson. Hold down the only skill position weapon of consequence who is currently healthy.
PATRIOTS GOTTA STOP
Brandon Marshall. He’s got 31 catches for 461 yards and four touchdowns in his last four games. The first time around, it was Eric Decker getting free on Malcolm Butler that helped keep the Jets in the game. But Marshall is still the more dangerous Jets wideout.
THAT SUMS IT UP PATRIOTS STYLE
“They just basically run over the guy in front of them. The guy that gets there first hits the quarterback and the other guys jump on the pile. They’re hard to block. They’re all good. They’re all productive. You can’t just gear it towards one guy. There are too many guys. They’re big, they’re physical, very strong.” – Bill Belichick on the Jets defensive line.
THAT SUMS IT UP JETS STYLE
“I think they do a great job with the guys, when they have people that make their 53 man roster. They can plug and play guys and they pick the right guys for their system, which is a credit to their coach and scouting staff. They just plug and play guys and they understand how to win, they’ve been doing it for a long time and they have a high success ratio. Right now they’re the Super Bowl Champs and they set the standard for the league, so everybody else has to catch up.” – Todd Bowles, Jets coach, on the Patriots progress without key offensive weapons.
VEGAS SAYS
The Patriots are favored by 3.5 and the total is 46. The Patriots are 0-4-1 against the spread in their last five against the Jets. The score has gone over the total in 10 of the last 12 games between the Patriots and Jets.
THE WINNER IS...
Jets 21, Patriots 17