ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. - The annual early-season game at Buffalo is never a snoozefest. It was 20-14 late in the third last year until the Patriots got fourth-quarter separation and won 37-22. In 2013, the Patriots won 23-21 in the final seconds on a Stephen Gostkowski field goal. In 2012, it was 21-21 late in the third before the Patriots blew it open and won 52-28 and in 2011, the Bills got their biggest win in the last several years, taking down the Patriots 34-31 after erasing a 21-0 deficit. They hate the Patriots out there. Rex Ryan has the fandom in an early uproar after taking out Indy in the opener and the Bills have plenty of talent on both sides to make it a very tough day for the Patriots.
WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL
Rex Ryan is a crowd-pleaser and nothing will please the Bills crowd more than seeing an addled and harried Tom Brady. That means blitzes, pressures, overloads – the works – to try and get Brady unloading quicker than he’d like and in the direction of guys he expects to be in the right spot at the right time. With up-front pressure, you can expect press coverage on the outside and the Bills to do whatever they can to jump routes and take advantage of what their scouting tells them Brady will do when under siege. The Patriots can short-circuit the Bills by going on the attack themselves. With the Bills on the hook to pay most of their attention to Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman, the screen game with Dion Lewis and shots downfield to Aaron Dobson could be an interesting counter to the expected Bills’ pressure. Whether LeGarrette Blount of Lewis gets the workload is worth wondering. Lewis had a very nice first game aside from a fumble in the second half the Patriots were able to jump on. The Patriots will be young up front again with rookies David Andrews and Tre Jackson at center and right guard. The Bills have one of the most talented defensive lines in the league and the checkmark in that matchup has to go to Buffalo until we see how the young players react to players like Marcel Dareus, Kyle Williams, Mario Williams, Jerry Hughes and Manny Lawson.
WHEN THE BILLS HAVE THE BALL
The Patriots boil down their game plan on both sides of the ball to a few important keys. Taking a stab at what those would be: 1. Keep Tyrod Taylor in the pocket with edge discipline and don’t overpursue and give him lanes. Make him a thrower. 2. Find wide receiver Percy Harvin and Charles Clay early and identify responsibilities so they don’t get lost downfield or in the seam. 3. Funnel plays geared to get players like LeSean McCoy or Harvin “in space” back to the middle of the field where there’s support. Last week, the Patriots played a fair amount of man coverage because Ben Roethlisberger isn’t a running threat and Antonio Brown is such a big part of their offense, he demanded full-time attention. This week, zone may be played more often because of the varied threats on Buffalo’s offense and the scrambling ability of Taylor. I’m curious to see who the Patriots put on the end of the defensive line to make sure the edge is solid and whether Jerod Mayo gets a bigger chunk of action this week in the middle of the field with Donta Hightower possibly being up on the end of the line. Hightower told me that, this early in the season, it’s impossible to predict what an offense is going to do so the team will likely be adjusting on the fly throughout the first half. Devin McCourty will be a key making sure everything is locked down coverage-wise if Taylor decides to take some shots with Harvin or Sammy Watkins.
THE KICKING GAME
Steady as she goes with the Patriots foot people, Stephen Gostkowski and Ryan Allen. Newly acquired return man Keshawn Martin could be in the mix having just come over from Houston in exchange for a fifth-round pick. That will likely take punt return duties from both Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman, though it may not be surprising if either of them gets put out there for kicks in plus-50 situations since the Patriots are particular about decision-making in that situation. Dan Carpenter is Buffalo’s kicker. He was 2 for 2 last week, both kicks from outside the 40. The Bills’ punter is Colton Schmidt. He had a 46.2 net on five punts last week and dropped two inside the 20. Marcus Thigpen is their returner for punts and kickoffs.
PATRIOTS MEDICAL REPORT
OUT: OL Ryan Wendell (illness), DOUBTFUL: DL Dominique Easley (hip); PROBABLE: RB Travaris Cadet (hamstring), DL Trey Flowers (knee), S Tavon Wilson (quad).
BILLS MEDICAL REPORT
OUT: WR Marquise Goodwin (ribs), LB Tony Stewart (knee); QUESTIONABLE: RB LeSean McCoy (hamstring); PROBABLE: S Corey Graham (concussion), WR Percy Harvin (hip).
GAME WITHIN THE GAME
How well Tom Brady does communicating to his offensive line what the protections are and how well the young group in front of Brady does in getting that stuff straight and also figuring out thinks the Bills unveil post-snap. This is one of the biggest games of Rex Ryan’s coaching career. He’s got everyone’s attention in Western New York and he’s got as much talent now as he ever did with the Jets. It’s early in the season with that stocked defense and a somewhat raw offensive line. If you were him, wouldn’t you have something special cooked up?
BILLS GOTTA STOP
Julian Edelman. The Bills are going to devote as many resources as possible to holding down Gronk. It’s Edelman they’ll be trying to get after with one guy, jamming, pressing and pestering to keep him from going off. In the last three games against Rex’ defense, Edelman has caught four for 44, five for 44 and 13 for 78 (that last one was the rain game early in 2013 when Brady threw it to him 18 times). With a loud crowd and a pressuring defense, Brady will likely be looking to Edelman with “hot” routes on some key plays.
PATRIOTS GOTTA STOP
Percy Harvin. He's the guy that can put ultimate stress on a defense because he's a threat at all three levels. He can be used on that Jet Sweep action, screens to the perimeter, crossers and deep stuff downfield as he showed last week in the opener against Indy when he brought in a 51-yard bomb from Tyrod Taylor. One of the league's most dynamic talents.
DON'T BE SURPRISED IF …
An off-the-radar Bill like wide receiver Chris Hogan (five catches and 72 yards in the Bills’ first meeting against the Patriots last season) or Robert Woods (finished 2014 with 65 catches and 699 yards) becomes the beneficiary of a Patriots defense consumed with other personnel and puts up a big day.
New England Patriots
THAT SUMS IT UP PATRIOTS STYLE
“I think it's good to have some different ways to offset kind of the energy and enthusiasm. They're a really aggressive team. They've got aggressive guys at safety. They've got some aggressive linebackers. I think a lot of it is just...It always comes down to execution. I know we talk about a lot of different ways to get the job done – run, pass, screen, draw, deep throw, short throw, quick throw – but ultimately, it comes down to how well you run with the ball, how good of decisions you make out there as an offensive lineman, our communication.” – Tom Brady, Patriots quarterback, on the difficulties posed by the Bills defense.
THAT SUMS IT UP BILLS STYLE
“I tell you I honestly think a big factor in helping is No. 12. He can point and put them in the right position, he can get them in-and-out of good plays to put them in good positions to get things blocked up so I think he can negate a lot of the greyness or the inexperience but like I said, they go and they play Pittsburgh last week, they do a good job, they move the ball, they score some points so like I said, they move guys in and out of those positions on the offensive line but they’re always productive and they always get the job done.” – Kyle Williams, Bills DT, on Tom Brady negating offensive line inexperience.
THE WINNER IS...
Patriots 27, Bills 23