If the Red Sox are truly going to go after a No. 1 starter this winter -- the absence of which proved disastrous last season -- it would seem David Price is their best target.
Except, perhaps, for one critical factor: his history of postseason failure.
Of the top free agent starters on the market -- a group that also includes Johnny Cueto and Zack Greinke - Price is the youngest, has the best medical history and has pitched only in the American League.
Cueto had elbow woes earlier this season before Cincinnati dealt him to Kansas City. Greinke is two years older and hasn't spent a full season in the American League since 2010.
Beyond those advantages, Price has a history with new Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski. While with the Detroit Tigers, Dombrowski engineered a three-team deal with Seattle and Tampa Bay to land Price at the deadline in 2014.
Presumably, that's evidence of Dombrowski's confidence in Price's ability, though it should be noted that when he obtained Price for the Tigers, it was done when Price had only a season and two months before reaching free agency. That's a far different scenario than this off-season, when Price will likely command a deal no shorter than six seasons and for a sum of $200 million or more.
But how much will Price's struggles in the postseason dissuade Dombrowski?
Price has started seven postseason games in his career with three franchises (Tampa Bay, Detroit and Toronto) and lost all seven.
And while won-loss records can be deceiving -- or outright irrelevant - in this case, that's hardly true. Price's ERA is 5.44, hardly the stuff of a front-line starter.
Of course, baseball history is littered with cases in which otherwise accomplished starters trip up in the postseason. Roger Clemens famously won just one of his nine career postseason starts with the Red Sox with a mediocre 3.88 ERA.
Further, when Price dropped his seventh straight decision as a postseason starter, he tied a record which had been held by Hall of Famer Randy Johnson, who is only one of the handful of greatest lefties in the history of the game.
The postseason curse has afflicted arguably the best pitcher in the game today: Los Angeles Dodgers lefthander Clayton Kershaw. Until Kershaw beat the New York Mets in Game 4 of the NLDS last week, he had the reputation as a poor pitcher in October.
As great as he's been during the regular season (.671 winning percentage, 2.43 ERA, three Cy Young Awards), he's been thoroughly mediocre as a postseason starter (2-6, 4.60).
So, what's a team to do? Dismiss poor postseason results as too small of a sample? Chalk it up to the randomness of the postseason?
"It can be important,'' said Dombrowski recently of his philosophy. "But I think you have to look at every circumstance and sort of inspect why guys (perform) a certain way. I can just reflect from my own situation. It's hard to believe, but when Justin Verlander first started, he didn't perform very well in the postseason.
"Part of it was that he was so amped up at that time. He just had a little bit of extra adrenaline flowing. And then, over time, even though that adrenaline was still flowing and then, as you know, went on and dominated in the postseason.
”So sometimes, it's just a process for guys. Of course, you'd love for people to dominate any time you talk about the postseason. You'd love people to be Madison Bumgarner all the time they go out there. But it's difficult to do. But (postseason performance) is involved in the conversation.”
At the very least, Price's struggles will give the Red Sox pause. It's worth noting that after the Blue Jays gave up two potential front-line pitchers to rent Price for two months of the regular season and the postseason, they had him start just once in their recent five-game ALDS win over Texas: the opener at home, in which he was shelled for five runs over seven innings.
Toronto manager John Gibbons then next used Price out of the bullpen in Game 4 - in a game in which the Jays were ahead 7-1 -- rather than saving him for a start in a winner-take-all Game 5.
Last Friday, just when it seemed that Price was going to change the narrative with six shutout innings in Game 1 of the ALCS against Kansas City, he came unglued in the seventh inning, charged with five runs while being tagged with yet another loss.
If Cueto is next on the Red Sox' shopping list, he, too, has a spotty October history.
He appeared rattled in a wild-card start in 2013, allowing four runs in 3 1/3 innings in Pittsburgh while famously dropping the ball on the mound while Pirates fans chanted his name.
Cueto face-planted again on the big stage Monday night, allowing eight earned runs in just two innings.
It may be unfair to evaluate a handful of postseason starts in such a decision, but given the well-known opposition of Red Sox ownership to long-term contracts for pitchers in their 30s, it could tip the scales altogether and send Dombrowski searching for pitching solutions other than the ones being offered in the free agent market.