There is no way in the name of Rony Seikaly that Carmelo Anthony is going to play for the Miami Heat. Sure, the Heat can make it happen numbers-wise. But Kevin Love-and-'Melo-to-the-Celtics has a much better chance of happening than the Sunshine Threesome becoming the Beach Thong foursome.
First of all, LeBron James and Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh would have to opt out of their current deals this summer, and then each take pay cuts of $10 million-$12 million a year, in order to clear enough money under the salary cap. THEN, 'Melo would have to leave his $23 million annual salary in New York and take anywhere from $7 million to $10 million dollars per year to play in Miami.
That alone kills the deal.
'Melo working at one-third his current pay to become the second option in an offense? Not only would he not want to do that, but he shouldn't do that. He needs touches to be effective.
At the other end, why should Wade or Bosh take pay cuts? If 'Melo comes in, that means less touches for them. Wade is on his way out and will never make the money he's making now, ever again. You think he's going to reduce his pay to bring in the guy who is going to take his shots? Why? So he has a better chance at a fourth or (if the Heat beat the Spurs this season) fifth ring? No way, and I don’t blame him. Same for Bosh. He's already the fifth Beatle. He isn’t going to take less dough to become a roadie.
LeBron is the only player who would take the cut. He has much more time left than Wade, it helps his legacy to win more championships, and even if Anthony came on board it would still be LeBron’s team. He could opt out and say, "I'm gone if we don’t get 'Melo." And if he does, Wade and Bosh can simply say, “Go have fun, LeBron, in L.A. or wherever. We have our championships. We're not taking less money and less playing time.”
There ya have it. Carmelo-to-Miami is not happening.
But Carmelo-to-Boston still could.
Of course, Anthony still has to opt out of the final year of his Knicks deal. If he does -- and June 23 is when he has to let New York know -- we can be certain that he's been assured a team(s) with real money is willing to give him the cash he's leaving in New York. It's much easier for the Celtics to lure 'Melo to Boston with REAL MONEY than it is for the Heat to lure 'Melo to Miami on a (potential) championship discount.
The hang up with Boston is the Kevin Love factor. Love has to be in Green for Carmelo to join him. I still maintain the Celtics have the best deal for the T-wolves. Houston, Golden State and Chicago can offer players, but not of the caliber that would guarantee winning records in Minneapolis-St. Paul for years to come. Flip Saunders is acting tough while he has the spotlight, but he knows the Celtics draft picks are the best chance for his team to rebuild.
With Love and Rajon Rondo as teammates, Anthony would
1. Get his money,
2. be the first offensive option, and
3. have a shot at a championship.
Yes, that's right; he'd have a shot. If Miami has a down year or Wade has health problems, the Celtics can win the East. And then all bets are off against the West.
(Quickly off topic: I have actually seen 'Melo play defense. I realize this is the equivalent of catching a glimpse of Big Foot or the Loch Ness Monster, but my eyes don't lie. He can play defense when he has to. If he reached the Finals with the Celtics, Carmelo would 'D' up.)
Back on topic. At the end of the day, Miami can hype its rumor all it wants. OUR rumor has a better chance of becoming reality.