What can POFF do for you?

What can POFF do for you?
August 17, 2012, 2:24 pm
Share This Post

Theres a baseball statistic called POFF, which serves the purpose of predicting the percentage chance that any given team has of making the playoffs. And as you can imagine, the way they go about determining this statistic is both complicated and entirely imperfect.

Heres how the site coolstandings.com explains the calculation of POFF:
How do we calculate these statistics? Basically we simulate the rest of the season millions of times, based on every team's performance to date and its remaining schedule. We then look at how many "seasons" a team won its division or won the wildcard, and voila - we have our numbers. The trick, of course, is to determine what chance each team has of beating every other team. Our method is to use simple team statistics (e.g. runs scored and runs against) to predict how each team will fare against all others. For those of you familiar with baseball prediction, we use a variation of the Bill James "Pythagorean Theorem" to predict results. Pretty smart, huh? That's why we call this prediction mode "Smart mode".

Well, you certainly cant call it Humble Mode.

Anyway, we all know that theres nothing definitive about this statistic. Case and point: On August 17, 2011, the Sox had a POFF of 96.5. Instead, that just turned out to be Josh Becketts September body fat percentage.

But that being said, it's hard to argue with this year's number.

As of this morning, Bostons POFF is 6.7. AKA, POFF gives them a 6.7 percent chance of making this year's playoffs.

But hey, on the brightside, they're undefeated during games in which Larry Lucchino, Tom Werner and John Henry sit awkwardly behind the dugout!

Just too bad we won't see those guys again until the apex of next year's disaster.

Rich can be reached at rlevine@comcastsportsnet.com. Follow Rich on Twitter at http:twitter.comrich_levine