Welker's other piece of leverage

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Welker's other piece of leverage

By now, you've heard the story of Wes Welker, the Patriots receiver who took a leap of faith and landed in a pile of poo. Or so it seems.

According to Welker, negotiations for a long term deal have gotten worse since he signed his franchise tender. This is a development that surprises no one, seeing how Welker's decision was met with almost universal confusion. The major question being: Why did he just piss away his only leverage?

The answer was, and is, that Welker loves football. He loves being a part of the team. He believes that if he does the right thing, the Patriots will follow suit and everyone will live happily ever after. So, far that's not the case.

But in our rush to declare Welker's leverage dead and buried, I think there's one major trump card that's being overlooked.

A 6-4, fashion maven with gooey, slicked back hair, a pension for Brazilian delicacies and three shiny Super Bowl rings. Of course, I'm talking about Lonnie Paxton.

Nah. Tom Brady. Welker's best bud. The guy who's spent the off-season as publicly attached to Welker as he's been to any teammate over more than a decade in Foxboro. The pair and just as importantly, their families have been seen vacationing in Costa Rica and partying at the Kentucky Derby. They're the rich man's Romo and Witten. At this point, they're much more than teammates. They're brothers. And brothers gotta hug, man.

Now, I know what you're thinking: Shut up. It's a business. Friendships don't matter.

And that might be true. And believe me, I'm not saying that the Patriots' treatment of Welker would or will reflect poorly in Brady's play. This isn't Rondo and Perk. Brady's been there. He's used to it. He's jaded. Over that last 12 years, he's said goodbye to more friends and teammates than most players ever meet. A few weeks ago, he said goodbye to Matt Light. In a few months, he'll say goodbye to Kevin Faulk. And who knows? Maybe even Deion Branch. Brady knows this is a business and can separate himself from the BS. If he couldn't, he wouldn't be here anymore.

But there's something about his relationship with Welker that just feels different. There's a bond on and off the field, that seems especially important. Take a look again at the last paragraph. The fact that pretty much everyone that Brady came in with has now moved on. Consider the fact that as he gets older, and the rest of team gets younger, it will become increasingly difficult for him to relate, be apart of the team and feel like he has any connection or anything in common with the guys he shares a locker room with.

You don't think he could use a friend? You don't think he wants one? You don't think that, in Wes Welker, he's found a guy who he can connect with on a special level and has granted access to a part of his life that's kept closed to almost everyone else. And as cruel and heartless as Belichick might be, you don't think he finds it important to keep Brady happy?

When you throw in the fact that between the lines in terms of production, a commitment to winning and willingness to put everything on the line in the name of the team Wes Welker is just about everything you can ever ask for in a player, it just makes sense that these two sides will eventually find a common ground and have a happy and healthy future.

If not, the world and the team will go on. It always does. But when we talk about Welker's leverage, I don't think we can overlook the obvious: That even if he only has one other guy on his side, that guy just happens to be the most important player in Patriots franchise history.

You could do a lot worse.

Rich can be reached at rlevine@comcastsportsnet.com. Follow Rich on Twitter at http:twitter.comrich_levine

Butler, Brown set to square off again in AFC title game

Butler, Brown set to square off again in AFC title game

FOXBORO -- The general consensus has been that when it comes to defending Antonio Brown, or any No. 1 receiver for that matter, the Patriots have two options: Use their top corner Malcolm Butler in man-to-man coverage or double-team him.

There are benefits to each. Butler has the speed an quickness to effectively mirror Brown's routes. Meanwhile, Logan Ryan has found recent success in teaming up with teammates to slow down top options like Houston's DeAndre Hopkins, who was the target when Devin McCourty broke up a fourth-quarter pass that resulted in a Ryan interception last week. 

Both the Steelers and the Patriots seemed to indicate that they knew which way Bill Belichick will lean this weekend. 

"[I] assume maybe that [Butler] will follow AB around," Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger said. "He’s a guy that really has just come into the role of being pretty much a shutdown corner."

"[Butler] takes this as a big challenge," Patriots defensive captain Dont'a Hightower said. "We obviously know what Antonio Brown is. He’s arguably the best wide receiver in the league. We know what kind of matchup threat he poses. We expect Malcolm to take advantage of that, and I know he’s ready to rise up to that challenge." 

But Brown -- named a First-Team All-Pro this season after reeling in 106 passes for 1,284 yards and 12 touchdowns -- has the ability to make one singular plan of attack obsolete, eventually. The Patriots will have to throw different looks at him to keep him guessing, keep Roethlisberger thinking, and keep their connection somewhat under control.

Here are a few of the options . . . 

COVER-1

In Week 7 against the Steelers, this seemed to be the coverage of choice for the Patriots. They used Butler to shadow Brown all over the field for much of the game while one safety patrolled the deep middle portion of the field.

The third-year corner saw nine targets sent his way while in coverage of Brown. Five were caught for 94 yards.

Though the numbers looked pretty good for Brown fantasy owners, Butler had one of his stronger games of the season, making an interception in the end zone while draped all over his man. That was followed up by a celebrattion that mocked Brown's staple touchdown dance.

Brown and Butler have a relationship after seeing each other over the last two seasons and shooting a Visa commerical together earlier this year, and he sounded fired up to go against Brown again this weekend.

"Most definitely I respect that guy," Butler said of Brown this week. "Great player obviously, and (I) just love to compete and he loves to compete also."

Though Butler found himself on what looked like an island in plenty of situations back in Week 7, the Patriots also had their deep safeties (McCourty and Duron Harmon) keep a close eye on Brown as well.

But on Brown's longest catch of the game, a 51-yarder over the middle of the field, having a safety there didn't mean much due to a smart play-design by offensive coordinator Todd Haley. 

Brown was followed by Butler all the way across the field, and though Harmon may have been in position to help over the top, he had to respect the deep over route run by Steelers burner Darrius Heyward-Bey. By the time Harmon got to Brown -- Heyward-Bey actually helped slow down Harmon by screening him deep down the field -- it was too late. 

IMMEDIATE DOUBLE-TEAM

There were other instances -- like the very first third-and-long of the game for the Steelers -- when the Patriots doubled Brown off the snap with Butler and McCourty. With a player of Brown's caliber, it's not question of either single him with Butler or double him. Doubles will simply be part of the deal, in all likelihood, whether Butler's on him or not.

Back in Week 7, the Patriots were burned by Steelers secondary options on a couple of occasions when they quickly removed Brown from the equation.

The first time Brown was doubled off the snap (above), Eric Rowe was left with Heyward-Bey in a one-on-one situation and was beaten for a 14-yard touchdown in the back corner of the end zone. The second time (below), Heyward-Bey ran across the field with Rowe trailing him, scoring once again from 14 yards out.

A holding penalty negated the second score, but it seemed clear what the Patriots were trying to tell the Steelers in those situations: "Go ahead and beat us with someone else, but we won't let you do it with Brown."

Even when Brown inevitably makes plays despite the extra attention -- the Steelers will run rub routes, screens and reverses simply to get the football in his hands -- it will be incumbent upon everyone to help limit his yards after the catch, McCourty explained this week.

"Brown is a great player and Malcolm has done a great job but it’s going to be all of us," McCourty said. "All of us have to help out and make sure we try to limit him whether that’s getting everyone to the ball, whether it’s a short pass [or] intermediate pass, whether he breaks a tackle and he’s trying to reverse, we all just got to have a high sense of urgency for him and alertness and try to get to him before he’s able to break the 50-60-yard play. I think defensively we all understand that and we’re going to work on that all week."

COVER-2, 2-MAN, COVER-4, ETC., ETC., ETC...

There are plenty of other defenses that the Patriots may choose to run in order to try to take away one of the game's best play-makers. If they feel as though Heyward-Bey or Eli Rogers or another teammate of Brown's is worthy of garnering special attention from one of their safeties, they could opt for more split-safety looks -- with both McCourty and Harmon deep -- than they did in Week 7.

The fact that it's Ben Roethlisberger behind center now -- and not Landry Jones, as it was in Week 7 -- may also help dictate coverages and encourage the Patriots to be more vigilent against the explosive play. 

Bottom line: Bill Belichick and defensive coordinator Matt Patricia will employ more than one look when they take on the best passing game they've faced all season. Oftentimes that'll mean two sets of eyes on Brown, and even then that's not guaranteed to stop him.

"It's tough because the thing about Antonio Brown and players of that caliber is that they're used to the multiple attention," Ryan said. "He gets doubled, he gets attention. Every team tries to do it, and he still has the numbers he has because he's a great player. That's what great players do.

"We just need to execute a little better than what other teams do. It's possible. It's not impossible. But he's not a guy you're going to completely eliminate from the game, and we've just got to corral him as a team."