BOSTON -- By Friday at 5 p.m. the Red Sox have some decisions to make. But, in reality, there's only one.
The Red Sox have six players who will become eligible for free agency at midnight Friday: DH David Ortiz; outfielder Cody Ross; starting pitchers Daisuke Matsuzaka and Aaron Cook; first baseman James Loney, and reliever Vicente Padilla.
To receive draft picks as compensation should any of the players sign elsewhere, the Red Sox must first present a "qualifying offer'' to potential free agents.
Players then have seven days to accept or decline.
Unlike past years, teams cannot offer their own free agents the opportunity to go to salary arbitration. (The Red Sox did exactly that with Ortiz last year and eventually arrived at a compromise salary of 14.575 million for 2012.)
The only option under the new collective bargaining agreement is to present a qualifying offer of 13.3 million -- regardless of the player. (That figure represents the average salary of top 20 percent of players in the game in 2012).
While presenting such an offer ensures compensation, it also carries some risks.
Boston Red Sox
In the past, the risk was that a player coming off a big salary and an off-year would accept arbitration and win a big raise. Now the risk is the 13.3 million salary, regardless of the player.
With Ortiz, of course, the Sox see no risk at all. They want to re-sign Ortiz and if he should accept a salary nearly 2 million cheaper, it would be a bargain.
The Sox also have an interest in retaining Ross, but not at 13.3 million. Most see his value somewhere around 7-9 million annually.
As for the rest, there's no chance the Sox will offer any of the remaining potential free agents a 13.3 million salary. In fact, with the possible exception of Padilla, there's little chance the Sox want to retain any of the others.
They do, however, want to retain Ortiz. Assuming the sides don't reach a deal before Friday, it will be fascinating to see how the negotiations go from there.
A source with knowledge of the talks said Wednesday that the two sides continue to exchange proposals, with some progress being made, but are not close to a deal.
At this point, it's difficult to imagine Ortiz would accept the qualifying offer. After all, it would result in the loss of the multiyear security he's been seeking.
Declining the qualifying offer wouldn't preclude Ortiz and the Sox from continuing to discuss a two-year settlement. They could still come to an agreement on a two-year deal days, or even weeks later. But in the meantime Ortiz would have the ability to negotiate with other clubs, possibly offering him additional leverage with the Sox.
One thing to remember: by presenting the qualifying offer to Ortiz, the Red Sox are attaching compensation to Ortiz, meaning most teams negotiating with him would have to sacrifice their first-round pick were they to sign him.