INDIANAPOLIS – For Patriots players, this game has less to do with the Colts trying to tattle on the New England equipment staff than it does with reasserting dominance over a team that somehow got billed as the favorites to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl next February. The Colts have been emasculated multiple times by New England. So badly embarrassed that their GM Ryan Grigson spent the days leading up to the game cozying up the league operations people via email in an effort to blow the lid off New England’s ball deflation scheme. That was desperation. And it hinted at just how low the Colts’ self-esteem must be when it comes to New England. The Patriots would like to keep the Colts feeling badly about themselves.
WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL
Here is how the last five Texans’ drives against the Colts went: 12 plays, field goal; nine plays, touchdown; three plays, punt; 10 plays, touchdown, eight plays, field goal; five plays, interception. And that’s Houston. A team that’s been wholly unable to get out of its own way offensively this season. The Indy defense is simply not very good. But you already knew that. The issue Sunday night will be the impact of Nate Solder being gone for the season and the offensive line shuffling that comes as a result. My belief is that the Patriots will move Sebastian Vollmer to left tackle and put Marcus Cannon at right tackle. Cannon is a talented player. He can have some focus lapses and gets off balance occasionally, but if the Patriots play to his strengths, there should be no significant glaring issues. The Colts have a choice to make defensively: Believe they have better personnel than previously with Kendall Langford, David Parry and Henry Anderson as their three-man front and just run the same scheme; load up to stop the run by bringing safeties up into the box and take their chances at getting Gronked. Or Edelmanned. With Dion Lewis questionable thanks to an abdominal injury that only makes it more likely the Patriots will line up with LeGarrette Blount in the backfield and try to rototill Indy again. Whether it be via Blount or Brady, the Patriots will eventually get theirs.
WHEN THE COLTS HAVE THE BALL
Will Andrew Luck play? He’s listed as questionable but you have to figure he’ll be out there. How will Andrew Luck play? The answer to that is much more elusive. He’s been down the past two games and Indy generated something resembling a competent offense, which is something they hadn’t done under Luck thanks to horrific offensive line play and subpar execution by Luck. The biggest key for Indy is establishing Frank Gore. If they can get something going on the ground, it will take the heat off of Luck and could keep the Patriots pass rush in check. New England’s been more prone to blitzing and attacking this season than any in recent memory. Luck can be dangerous on the move, though, so expect the kind of contain-oriented rush they use against more mobile quarterbacks. Being without corner Tarell Brown means the Patriots will have Logan Ryan on the field a lot along with Malcolm Butler. Don’t be surprised if the Patriots sic Butler on T.Y. Hilton. He’s got the speed to do it which Darrelle Revis, for all the brilliance he had in coverage, really didn’t have. Andre Johnson, Donta Moncrief, tight ends Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen and slot reserve Griff Whelan are a good complement of players. Make Luck string plays together and convert third downs and in the red zone. If he can better than he’s done this year against lesser competition, we may have a game.
THE KICKING GAME
Pat McAfee is a very good punter and Adam Vinatieri – despite two misses this season after being perfect in 2014 – remains outstanding. Whelan is the punt returner and can be slippery. The Colts coverage teams have been solid this year.
PATRIOTS MEDICAL REPORT
OUT: CB Tarell Brown (foot); QUESTIONABLE: DL Trey Flowers (knee/shoulder), LB Donta Hightower (ribs), RB Dion Lewis (abdomen).
COLTS MEDICAL REPORT
QUESTIONABLE: LB Jerrell Freeman (groin), LB Nate Irving (knee), QB Andrew Luck (right shoulder); PROBABLE: WR T.Y. Hilton (groin), LB Trent Cole (back), LB Bjoern Werner (hamstring), DT Billy Wynn (eye)
GAME WITHIN THE GAME
Does Indy deviate offensively from what it did in the first few weeks when it struggled mightily? With Andrew Luck at the controls, they went 1-2 as Luck threw five touchdowns and seven picks and completed just 56 percent of his passes. Under Matt Hasselbeck, the Indy offense used more rollouts and short passes. The amount of time Luck had been spending holding the ball waiting for something to unfold was in stark contrast to the quick tempo of Hasselbeck. Can Luck operate as fast as Hasselbeck did? Will he play well against the Patriots finally?
COLTS GOTTA STOP
LeGarrette Blount. Blount’s 314 yards and seven touchdowns in his last two meetings with the Colts defense as a member of the Patriots illustrates perfectly what this game comes down to. You can add in Jonas Gray’s 204 from last regular season as well. The Colts have been unable to mount any kind of resistance at the point of attack against the Patriots running game and that’s what’s led to the hammerings. Will an offensive line that’s four-fifths different from the one Indy’s seen in the past make a difference? That's the question.
PATRIOTS GOTTA STOP
Frank Gore. With Luck coming in nursing a bad shoulder and not having played particularly well this season (to say nothing of how poorly he’s played in past games against the Patriots), getting Gore and the running game in gear is paramount to Indy’s success. The ineffectiveness Indy’s shown on the ground in the past against the Patriots on the ground will be bad news for Indy.
DON'T BE SURPRISED IF...
This isn’t the blowout that’s expected. I don’t think the Patriots are in much jeopardy of losing this game, but there has to be a point at which Indianapolis’ own pride kicks in against the Patriots, isn’t there?
THAT SUMS IT UP PATRIOTS STYLE
“You just max out every week. And every week is a little different. You have different human emotions that you go through. And there are, you know, some days you just don't feel as good, I don't know, for one reason or another. There are some game days where I'm like, "Man, I feel amazing." There are other ones where you're trying to get yourself feeling at your peak level, so I don't know. I don't think that's really been a ... How you get to that level where you're feeling great every week, that's what you try to do. Like I said, you max out your effort. Coach [Belichick] always talks about all the preparation. The entire week comes down to three hours on Sunday, so it's how do you ramp yourself up for that three hour window where it all matters.” – Tom Brady discussing playing with peak motivation.
THAT SUMS IT UP COLTS STYLE
“We’ve gotten better and our numbers are better. I’m not a bean counter. At the end of the day, you try to keep people out of the end zone and scoring defense is huge. You want to play great situational football and stopping the run is always going to be paramount to any team’s success. We’ve done a better job of that. I think our front seven interior linemen have played well to this point. I think they’re gaining confidence and playing better. We’re going to have to play really well come Sunday night. Again, we all know what’s transpired and that’s in the past and that’s history. This team hasn’t really played that team and they got some different players and we got some different players, but I like the direction we’re going.” – Chuck Pagano, Colts coach, on his team’s run-stopping ability.
THE WINNER IS...
Patriots 42, Colts 17