Applying average depth to Patriots pass catchers

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Applying average depth to Patriots pass catchers

Mike Clay has outdone himself.

Clay, one of the brains behind ProFootballFocus.com, introduced a new football statistic Tuesday he says should make all old pass catching stats "obsolete."

It's called Average Depth of Target.

Why is aDOT a better study than yards-per-reception, yards-per-target, and yards-after-catch? It includes a sample size larger than receptions, better compensates for outliers, and is predictive.

But the best part? There was no regular NFL stat that told us where a guy was on the field when targeted. Now there is.

So what can depth-of-target tell us about the Patriots?

Three New England players show up on Clay's list of top and bottom 10 wide receivers and tight ends: Brandon Lloyd, Aaron Hernandez, Wes Welker.

"For some perspective, the NFL average aDOT is 0.4 for a running back, 12.0 for a wide receiver, and 8.0 for a tight end," Clay explains.

Lloyd sits pretty in the number three spot with an aDOT of 16.6. This confirms his explosive downfield ability and points to where the Patriots can use him. The second thing to glean is how his depth is averaged over such a large number of receptions (144). Lloyd is the only guy in the top 10 who caught over 140 balls; Mike Wallace is next best with 122.

The other two Patriots pass catchers are ranked in Clay's bottom 10, at 109 (Hernandez) and 113 (Welker). Keep in mind that on this chart, being a cellar-dweller is not necessarily a bad thing.

Hernandez, a hybrid tight end-receiver, has a normalized aDOT of 7.8 on 134 catches. Makes sense, as he's a guy who works both downfield and out of the backfield.

Welker is lowest since 2008 among wide receivers with 50 targets in 2011. His number is low even for a slot guy, but that's just how the Patriots use him: underneath as a possession player.

Chad Ochocinco is an interesting one. Based on his 2,694 yards on 207 catches in the last four years, you'd assume he sits in the top half. Indeed, Ochocinco is right around 22nd highest out of 91 receiver samples.

But the truly telling thing is, in an isolation of 2011 when he had just 15 catches, Ochocinco was at 20.2. That number blows Clay's 12.0 receiver average to smithereens. It also seems to say the guy has just one, two routes in his repertoire: go or out.

Is that what the Patriots brought Ocho in for? Sure, he's got a great depth score, but it comes via a limited repertoire and he doesn't always get open.

Check out ProFootballFocus.com for more interesting number play.

Celtics-Heat preview: Do C's need to bounce back from a win?

Celtics-Heat preview: Do C's need to bounce back from a win?

BOSTON – The final score on the Jumbotron Friday night said the Celtics beat the Phoenix Suns 130-120.
 
But there was a clear and undeniable sense of loss on the part of the Celtics, even if Friday’s victory was their third in a row and sixth in the past seven games.
 
The Celtics (47-26) hope to continue on their winning ways tonight against a Miami Heat team currently among a handful fighting for one of the last playoff slots, but are doing so without Dion Waiters (ankle) who has been instrumental in their surge after an 11-30 start to the season.
 
Beating the Heat (35-37) will require Boston to play better than they did against the Suns, a game Boston won, but in many ways had the feeling of defeat.
 
Yes, Devin Booker’s career-high 70 points was very much a blow – a huge blow – to the pride of a team that takes tremendous pride in its defense.
 
But the sense of a loss came in the form of purpose while playing as close to their potential as possible.
 
The Celtics fell short on both fronts Friday night.
 
Being just one game behind Cleveland (47-24) for the best record in the East, the Celtics understand getting as many wins as possible is the mindset right now.
 
But coach Brad Stevens knows that while winning is important, how the team plays is even more valuable.
 
“Like I’ve said before, I’m surprised at where we are record-wise because we’ve got to play at a higher level for 48 minutes,” Stevens said. “We just don’t do it.”
 
Is this Stevens’ way of trying to motivate his players after a not-so-great performance?
 
Or is he seriously concerned that his team isn’t as good as their record?
 
The Celtics, by their own standards, and to those of us on the outside looking in, know they are a better team than the one we saw on Friday night.
 
Not having Avery Bradley (sick) certainly hurt Boston’s efforts defensively.
 
Still, a Friday night’s game wore on, Booker’s confidence only grew and the Celtics’ desire to shut him down or at least slow him down, began to dissipate like an ice cube in hell.
 
And that’s a problem - a big problem - for a team that has to be connected at both ends of the floor for an extended period of time in order to play at the level their capable of and, most important, give them the best shot at emerging victorious in the postseason.
 
That’s why Stevens isn’t too caught up in the team’s chances of catching Cleveland, or whether they go into the playoffs riding a fat winning streak.
 
“I’m not going to get caught up in winning a couple of games in a row and all that stuff,” Stevens said. “I want to get caught up in playing well. We’ve shown ourselves capable of playing well, we have not sustained it throughout a game. And it’s been pretty consistent.”
 

Win vs. Islanders 'a nice building block' for Bruins

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Win vs. Islanders 'a nice building block' for Bruins

BROOKLYN, NY – It wasn’t particularly entertaining and it won’t be all that memorable down the ride aside from the timing and importance of the meeting between the Bruins and Islanders. But it was a solid 2-1 team win for the Bruins over the Islanders at the Barclays Center on Saturday night with the B’s grinding all the way down to the end while protecting a one-goal lead through much of the third period.

Nearly everybody across Boston’s roster contributed in the major victory over the team trying to bypass them in the wild card standings, and it was a beautiful thing. Anton Khudobin stepped up when Tuukka Rask couldn’t start Saturday night’s showdown with a lower body issue, and Riley Nash supplied both Boston goals from a fourth line that’s played some of their best hockey lately.

It was unlikely heroes all around for the Black and Gold in the tightly-wound contest, but that diversity of talent and production can be a very good thing for a team looking to make that playoff push.

“You have to stay with it. You have to stay in the moment and stay with the game no matter what’s happening during the game. That’s how you get results, and that’s how you find ways to persevere through adversity,” said Patrice Bergeron. “We just got back to playing stingy, especially in the neutral zone. We got away from it the last few games, and it was nice tonight to be back playing a low-scoring game like what we’re used to playing.”

When it was all said and done the Bruins only allowed 19 shots on net and also killed off six penalties in the kind of grinding defensive showdown that you haven’t seen all that much out of the Black and Gold lately. It was exactly what Cassidy was looking for to snap the four-game losing streak, and once again start pushing the Bruins upward into the playoff chase.

“That’s the type of win that goes a long way in the room when your goaltender is battling hard and fighting that hard to see pucks and find pucks and your D are blocking shots. And you kill that many penalties. It was a nice building block for us,” said Cassidy. “From the goalie on out, everybody was in there [in the win]. It was a tough game. It was a nice Bruins win. We had been doing it with offense earlier, and we’ve got to be able to do it both ways. You need to be able to win 2-1 hockey games, and it had been awhile.”

Now it’s simply up to the Bruins to be feeling good about their latest win while going back to basics, and looking for more next time around after ending their worst losing streak of the season.